Post by ohhaithur on Aug 19, 2010 22:51:08 GMT -5
Here are the Vegas odds for each team to win its conference and the NBA crown. Unfortunately, do to circumstances beyond my control (i.e. an angry coach) I finished the East before the sim but had to do the West after. Odds will represent that unfortunately.
The Longshots
Milwaukee Bucks (250:1 to win the conference, 400:1 to win the NBA Title)
Poor trofie. Taking over the worst franchise in the league and having no luck since. With a poor training camp, no big free agent signings and no lotto draft picks last year, the Bucks are bound for the cellar. Sucker's bet.
Portland Trailblazers, Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies (200:1 to win the conference, 400:1 to win the NBA Title)
The bastard stepchildren of the ugly duckling conference. At least for this year. All these teams have some things in common. Mainly the fact that they have given up on just being content sneaking into the Western playoffs in favor of retooling for down the line. Many of these teams have given up their talent to the Eastern Conference contenders, making the West extremely young and in danger of losing 70% of their games to the East this year. Of this group, Memphis and Portland have the most going for them in the future, but these guys will be doormats for the year.
Miami Heat (150:1 to win the conference, 250:1 to win the NBA Title)
A team with not much to work with outside of Paul Pierce didn't do much to get better this offseason, mainly due to the selection of Vlade Milicic, who will be stored overseas for two years. While they aren't the least talented team, it will be nearly impossible for them to navigate the depth the East has.
Indiana Pacers (100:1 to win the conference, 200:1 to win the NBA Title)
This team looks like it will improve greatly in the future but the question to me is whether the team will stick together long enough to develop all the high-potential guys. That doesn't matter for this year though. For this year, this group doesn't have the firepower to compete in the East. They do, however, have the pieces to move at the trade deadline if needed. They could be a darkhorse if they sell out for the future.
Chicago Bulls (80:1 to win the conference, 150:1 to win the NBA Title)
It's hard to evaluate this team since it's obviously not going to stay together for longer than a week. For now, however, Bankz seems to be looking to the future. If he sticks with that they'll be a lotto team again, but if he gets impatient they might be able to make a run.
The Middle of the Pack
Charlotte Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets (45:1 to win the conference, 70:1 to win the NBA Title)
A very well-rounded team with some depth increases this year, the Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets look to become more than "That team that took Jordan to a Game 7". I like Darrell Armstrong a lot, but overall there is gigantic hole at PF that will get absolutely exploited in the East. Unless a big move is made, this team cannot sustain a run. They do have depth at other positions to make it, however.
Philadelphia 76ers (40:1 to win the conference, 75:1 to win the NBA Title)
A perennial fringe playoff team, the Sixers have the capabilities to sneak into the bottom of the playoff pool and give problems to the top seeds in the East. With a gigantic weakness at C, the Sixers splurged on Priest Lauderdale, but he won't be enough to save them in the East.
Phoenix Suns (35:1 to win the conference, 70:1 to win the NBA Title)
Finally getting the chance to consolidate their talent into better players now, Matt has a shot to make a run this year. I still think they’re a year away but they have the ability to trade more if Matt gets impatient. Starting off with the league’s worst record is not a good start, however. We’ll see how he plays out, but this might be one of the better bets if things get going.
New York Knicks (35:1 to win the conference, 55:1 to win the NBA Title)
With two superstars, the Knicks could easily make a run this year. Winning the LeBron sweepstakes will have a lasting impact on this squad, which may only be a piece away from being a feared team. Kenny Thomas was a pretty decent pickup at PF, but a shit-tier C will do this team in. With three first round picks this year, however, I see this team primed to make a move to pick up the center to try to put them over the edge. One of my favorite mid-range bets.
Los Angeles Lakers (30:1 to win the conference, 70:1 to win the NBA Title)
The key to this team will be Ryan Humphrey. If he can get going this team has a good chance of winning the Pacific Division and getting two home series. With Kidd they’ll always have a chance, but will there be enough punch on offense to get the wins needed? Shooting guard is a tremendous weakness that will likely be their downfall, but if that hole can be filled they have a chance. Once you’re in the dance you have a chance…
Seattle ZombieSonics (30:1 to win the conference, 70:1 to win the NBA Title)
A very similar team to the Lakers and I expect similar results. Defensive-minded center, young PF trying to put it together, scoring punch from the three, weakness at the two and dominating PG play? Have we heard this before? A playoff near-lock, they will have their shot at upsetting the big dogs as well.
The Inside Track
Cleveland Cavs (25:1 to win the conference, 40:1 to win the NBA Title)
A suddenly well-rounded team, the Cavs have the chance to make some noise in the playoffs, should they make it. With no starter under a B+ on defense, they have the stopping power to go along with their great scorers. A dangerously thin front line could do them in, however.
Washington Wizards (20:1 to win the conference, 35:1 to win the NBA Title)
They have Shaq. That's a good thing. They caught absolute fire at the end of the year last year and ended up a tiebreaker shy of sneaking into the playoffs. And I'm sure a lot of Eastern teams were happy they did, because they could beat anyone. The consistency will likely cost them, as they are not as talented as the rest of the teams, but Shaq could dominate.
Brooklyn Nets (20:1 to win the conference, 35:1 to win the NBA Title)
In a similar boat to the Wizards, SimYao has the ability to dominate, but has more help than Shaq does. Scoring may be an issue for this team if they rely on outside scoring. Giving up their 1st round pick will make talk of an implosion a non-issue, but do they have enough firepower to win the conference?
Toronto Raptors (15:1 to win the conference, 20:1 to win the NBA Title)
I might catch some flack for sliding this squad back this far, but they might be really vulnerable. Seriously. The defense is still elite, but where is the scoring going to come from if Kobe doesn't have an amazing game? Brandon will get his as the second option, but having nothing at the 3/4/5 will be their downfall in a conference with Duncan, Webber and KG.
Los Angeles Clippers (12:1 to win the conference, 25:1 to win the NBA Title)
The defending Pacific Division champs went out with a whimper last year but are slightly better this season. They’ll have to win the division to have even the slightest chance at winning the West. Having home court against the two-seed gives them a shooters chance. Sucker’s bet in my opinion.
Sacramento Kings (12:1 to win the conference, 25:1 to win the NBA Title)
Quick bounceback for a team near the bottom last year. The key? Jermaine O’Neal. The All-World center hung with the big boys in the East and now takes his talents to the more center-dearth West. While the Clippers are a better team overall, the Kings have the potential to make more noise in the playoffs with JO. But having to go on the road to do it will likely be their downfall. Like all other Pacific teams, they are a sucker’s bet at this price, as well.
Detroit Pistons (12:1 to win the conference, 18:1 to win the NBA Title)
The Big Three. Can they put it together and make a run? They surely have the ability to, but they could use some wing help. They definitely have the biggest boom potential but play in a really tough division and conference. Zo/Duncan/AI all providing elite defense and scoring could be too much for anyone else.
The Favorites
Atlanta Hawks (8:1 to win the conference, 12:1 to win the NBA Title)
With the league favorite for MVP, Kevin Garnett, this squad has a great chance to make a run. I feel the top three teams are a step above the rest of the East. If you can't tell by the teams in the East being very close in odds for winning the conference and the Title, I think the East will have the winner this year.
Minnesota Fighting Kahns (3:1 to win the conference, 8:1 to win the NBA Title)
By adding T-Mac, this already great team moves into the ranks of the elite. With suffocating defense and now two unstoppable scorers, no opponent is out of reach. You may notice something interesting about these top three West teams.
Utah Jazz (3:1 to win the conference, 8:1 to win the NBA Title)
Overactive GM ohhaithur leads in another solid yet unspectacular team into the season. Playing strong D with some scorers, they can beat everyone. Will they hold up? They have as good of a shot as anyone. They’re off to a strong start, destroying the defending champs en route to a conference leading 5-1 record, but come playoff time anything can happen.
Houston Rockets (3:1 to win the conference, 8:1 to win the NBA Title)
Vegas stays smart and keeps all three favorites even. How can you separate these three teams? They all finished 4-4 against the other two last year and not much has changed outside for the defending Western Conference champs. Stockton coming back keeps them nose-to-nose with the other two Midwest squads. This division race will be unbelievable and the team who comes in second might be the team in the best shape. Think how last year shook out. Houston had to go through Minnesota AND Utah while the Jazz got a second bye playing the Clippers. With the top three teams even better, the path might be impossible. Although home court will be huge. Definitely the intriguing storyline of the season will be how this shakes out. None of the three West teams are good bets with equal shots, but I wouldn’t suggest betting on anyone in the field.
Orlando Magic (6:1 to win the conference, 8:1 to win the NBA Title)
Defending champs bring back almost all of their squad that shocked the league last season. The guys are a year older, but they all came back for another run. Will they be able to keep up the mojo or will they get sucked into the black hole that is the East? As the defending champ they get short odds, but this analyst calls them a sucker bet at 8:1.
Boston Celtics (3:1 to win the conference, 4:1 to win the NBA Title)
The clear favorite to fans and bettors alike. The best team last year from top to bottom got a nice boost from dealing Pau Gasol for Dwayne Wade and Kendrick Perkins. With a more true center this team, which was 23-0 in preseason, will certainly be a tough out. With such short odds I wouldn’t recommend betting on them (as anything can happen in this league) but how can you bet against them?
MVP odds:
5:1 Kobe Bryant
6:1 Chris Webber
6:1 Jermaine O'Neal
6:1 Shaquille O'Neal
8:1 Vince Carter
8:1 Tim Duncan
10:1 Rasheed Wallace
10:1 Yao Ming
10:1 Alonzo Mourning
The Longshots
Milwaukee Bucks (250:1 to win the conference, 400:1 to win the NBA Title)
Poor trofie. Taking over the worst franchise in the league and having no luck since. With a poor training camp, no big free agent signings and no lotto draft picks last year, the Bucks are bound for the cellar. Sucker's bet.
Portland Trailblazers, Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies (200:1 to win the conference, 400:1 to win the NBA Title)
The bastard stepchildren of the ugly duckling conference. At least for this year. All these teams have some things in common. Mainly the fact that they have given up on just being content sneaking into the Western playoffs in favor of retooling for down the line. Many of these teams have given up their talent to the Eastern Conference contenders, making the West extremely young and in danger of losing 70% of their games to the East this year. Of this group, Memphis and Portland have the most going for them in the future, but these guys will be doormats for the year.
Miami Heat (150:1 to win the conference, 250:1 to win the NBA Title)
A team with not much to work with outside of Paul Pierce didn't do much to get better this offseason, mainly due to the selection of Vlade Milicic, who will be stored overseas for two years. While they aren't the least talented team, it will be nearly impossible for them to navigate the depth the East has.
Indiana Pacers (100:1 to win the conference, 200:1 to win the NBA Title)
This team looks like it will improve greatly in the future but the question to me is whether the team will stick together long enough to develop all the high-potential guys. That doesn't matter for this year though. For this year, this group doesn't have the firepower to compete in the East. They do, however, have the pieces to move at the trade deadline if needed. They could be a darkhorse if they sell out for the future.
Chicago Bulls (80:1 to win the conference, 150:1 to win the NBA Title)
It's hard to evaluate this team since it's obviously not going to stay together for longer than a week. For now, however, Bankz seems to be looking to the future. If he sticks with that they'll be a lotto team again, but if he gets impatient they might be able to make a run.
The Middle of the Pack
Charlotte Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets (45:1 to win the conference, 70:1 to win the NBA Title)
A very well-rounded team with some depth increases this year, the Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets look to become more than "That team that took Jordan to a Game 7". I like Darrell Armstrong a lot, but overall there is gigantic hole at PF that will get absolutely exploited in the East. Unless a big move is made, this team cannot sustain a run. They do have depth at other positions to make it, however.
Philadelphia 76ers (40:1 to win the conference, 75:1 to win the NBA Title)
A perennial fringe playoff team, the Sixers have the capabilities to sneak into the bottom of the playoff pool and give problems to the top seeds in the East. With a gigantic weakness at C, the Sixers splurged on Priest Lauderdale, but he won't be enough to save them in the East.
Phoenix Suns (35:1 to win the conference, 70:1 to win the NBA Title)
Finally getting the chance to consolidate their talent into better players now, Matt has a shot to make a run this year. I still think they’re a year away but they have the ability to trade more if Matt gets impatient. Starting off with the league’s worst record is not a good start, however. We’ll see how he plays out, but this might be one of the better bets if things get going.
New York Knicks (35:1 to win the conference, 55:1 to win the NBA Title)
With two superstars, the Knicks could easily make a run this year. Winning the LeBron sweepstakes will have a lasting impact on this squad, which may only be a piece away from being a feared team. Kenny Thomas was a pretty decent pickup at PF, but a shit-tier C will do this team in. With three first round picks this year, however, I see this team primed to make a move to pick up the center to try to put them over the edge. One of my favorite mid-range bets.
Los Angeles Lakers (30:1 to win the conference, 70:1 to win the NBA Title)
The key to this team will be Ryan Humphrey. If he can get going this team has a good chance of winning the Pacific Division and getting two home series. With Kidd they’ll always have a chance, but will there be enough punch on offense to get the wins needed? Shooting guard is a tremendous weakness that will likely be their downfall, but if that hole can be filled they have a chance. Once you’re in the dance you have a chance…
Seattle ZombieSonics (30:1 to win the conference, 70:1 to win the NBA Title)
A very similar team to the Lakers and I expect similar results. Defensive-minded center, young PF trying to put it together, scoring punch from the three, weakness at the two and dominating PG play? Have we heard this before? A playoff near-lock, they will have their shot at upsetting the big dogs as well.
The Inside Track
Cleveland Cavs (25:1 to win the conference, 40:1 to win the NBA Title)
A suddenly well-rounded team, the Cavs have the chance to make some noise in the playoffs, should they make it. With no starter under a B+ on defense, they have the stopping power to go along with their great scorers. A dangerously thin front line could do them in, however.
Washington Wizards (20:1 to win the conference, 35:1 to win the NBA Title)
They have Shaq. That's a good thing. They caught absolute fire at the end of the year last year and ended up a tiebreaker shy of sneaking into the playoffs. And I'm sure a lot of Eastern teams were happy they did, because they could beat anyone. The consistency will likely cost them, as they are not as talented as the rest of the teams, but Shaq could dominate.
Brooklyn Nets (20:1 to win the conference, 35:1 to win the NBA Title)
In a similar boat to the Wizards, SimYao has the ability to dominate, but has more help than Shaq does. Scoring may be an issue for this team if they rely on outside scoring. Giving up their 1st round pick will make talk of an implosion a non-issue, but do they have enough firepower to win the conference?
Toronto Raptors (15:1 to win the conference, 20:1 to win the NBA Title)
I might catch some flack for sliding this squad back this far, but they might be really vulnerable. Seriously. The defense is still elite, but where is the scoring going to come from if Kobe doesn't have an amazing game? Brandon will get his as the second option, but having nothing at the 3/4/5 will be their downfall in a conference with Duncan, Webber and KG.
Los Angeles Clippers (12:1 to win the conference, 25:1 to win the NBA Title)
The defending Pacific Division champs went out with a whimper last year but are slightly better this season. They’ll have to win the division to have even the slightest chance at winning the West. Having home court against the two-seed gives them a shooters chance. Sucker’s bet in my opinion.
Sacramento Kings (12:1 to win the conference, 25:1 to win the NBA Title)
Quick bounceback for a team near the bottom last year. The key? Jermaine O’Neal. The All-World center hung with the big boys in the East and now takes his talents to the more center-dearth West. While the Clippers are a better team overall, the Kings have the potential to make more noise in the playoffs with JO. But having to go on the road to do it will likely be their downfall. Like all other Pacific teams, they are a sucker’s bet at this price, as well.
Detroit Pistons (12:1 to win the conference, 18:1 to win the NBA Title)
The Big Three. Can they put it together and make a run? They surely have the ability to, but they could use some wing help. They definitely have the biggest boom potential but play in a really tough division and conference. Zo/Duncan/AI all providing elite defense and scoring could be too much for anyone else.
The Favorites
Atlanta Hawks (8:1 to win the conference, 12:1 to win the NBA Title)
With the league favorite for MVP, Kevin Garnett, this squad has a great chance to make a run. I feel the top three teams are a step above the rest of the East. If you can't tell by the teams in the East being very close in odds for winning the conference and the Title, I think the East will have the winner this year.
Minnesota Fighting Kahns (3:1 to win the conference, 8:1 to win the NBA Title)
By adding T-Mac, this already great team moves into the ranks of the elite. With suffocating defense and now two unstoppable scorers, no opponent is out of reach. You may notice something interesting about these top three West teams.
Utah Jazz (3:1 to win the conference, 8:1 to win the NBA Title)
Overactive GM ohhaithur leads in another solid yet unspectacular team into the season. Playing strong D with some scorers, they can beat everyone. Will they hold up? They have as good of a shot as anyone. They’re off to a strong start, destroying the defending champs en route to a conference leading 5-1 record, but come playoff time anything can happen.
Houston Rockets (3:1 to win the conference, 8:1 to win the NBA Title)
Vegas stays smart and keeps all three favorites even. How can you separate these three teams? They all finished 4-4 against the other two last year and not much has changed outside for the defending Western Conference champs. Stockton coming back keeps them nose-to-nose with the other two Midwest squads. This division race will be unbelievable and the team who comes in second might be the team in the best shape. Think how last year shook out. Houston had to go through Minnesota AND Utah while the Jazz got a second bye playing the Clippers. With the top three teams even better, the path might be impossible. Although home court will be huge. Definitely the intriguing storyline of the season will be how this shakes out. None of the three West teams are good bets with equal shots, but I wouldn’t suggest betting on anyone in the field.
Orlando Magic (6:1 to win the conference, 8:1 to win the NBA Title)
Defending champs bring back almost all of their squad that shocked the league last season. The guys are a year older, but they all came back for another run. Will they be able to keep up the mojo or will they get sucked into the black hole that is the East? As the defending champ they get short odds, but this analyst calls them a sucker bet at 8:1.
Boston Celtics (3:1 to win the conference, 4:1 to win the NBA Title)
The clear favorite to fans and bettors alike. The best team last year from top to bottom got a nice boost from dealing Pau Gasol for Dwayne Wade and Kendrick Perkins. With a more true center this team, which was 23-0 in preseason, will certainly be a tough out. With such short odds I wouldn’t recommend betting on them (as anything can happen in this league) but how can you bet against them?
MVP odds:
5:1 Kobe Bryant
6:1 Chris Webber
6:1 Jermaine O'Neal
6:1 Shaquille O'Neal
8:1 Vince Carter
8:1 Tim Duncan
10:1 Rasheed Wallace
10:1 Yao Ming
10:1 Alonzo Mourning
