Post by jayrish on Jul 20, 2010 19:25:42 GMT -5
This is the first of a 3 part article, in which I took all potential draft picks and came up with a PAR (Prospect Awesomeness Rating, fuck John Hollinger) score for each. I will go through the top 13 in honor of the 13 lottery selections. The first 5 are below, 6-9 will be posted around this time tomorrow, and 10-13 will be posted about this time Friday. Please don't vote for this article until the last article is posted on Friday. Please note that these are not how I would rate each player if I were drafting, or a mock draft. This list is simply who scored highest in PAR. Also, I promise that the next two won't be nearly as long. sorry about no indentations :/
1. Caron Butler- SF, UConn; PAR: 3.25
PAR ratings out of the gates with a little stretch in the top player overall? It might not be as much of a stretch as you think. NBA executives have been salivating over Caron Butler since he burst on the college scene as a freshman last year, in which he averaged 15/7.5 and over 2 steals a game. Despite likely having been selected as a lottery pick in last year’s draft, Butler decided to return to UConn for his sophomore season to refine his skills. He followed up his rookie campaign at UConn by a stellar sophomore season in which he averaged 20/7.5 and over 2 steals a game. Most importantly, he increased his field goal percentage (from 43% to 48%) and especially his three-point field goal percentage (from 30% to 40%), which had previously been the only knock on his game.
Butler comes into the league as a hybrid wing player, with his more natural position likely to be small forward down the road. He still has room to add weight to his frame, and could easily be at a sturdy 245 pounds in a couple years. As he adds to his frame, his value as a defender will only increase, and he has the potential to be one of the league’s top stoppers on the wing depending on how hard he works. In a league where the top point producers tend to be wing players, having a potentially lock down defender that can guard either position like Butler can would be a massive asset for any team.
His offense game saw drastic improvements in his transition from a freshman to a sophomore. The fact that his 3 point shooting percentage skyrocketed from 30% to 40% shows just how hard of a worker Butler is. Drastic jumps like that don’t just happen, Butler worked his ass of in the offseason and, as a result, could end up being a top 5 draft pick. General managers love to see guys who aren’t satisfied with where they’re at, and if Butler continues to improve his jump shooting and adds on 20 more pounds of muscle, he has the raw potential to mold into an NBA superstar.
Where he’d fit best: Sacramento Kings
The Kings have not been able to get very much production out of any of their wing players this year. Michael Bradley has been decent, but has had trouble defending quicker 3s and isn’t big enough yet to guard power forwards. Aside of Bradley, the Kings have been extremely weak in their 2 and 3 guards, and Butler could come in and give them a difference maker at any position. In addition, if Joe Forte doesn’t end up working out for them, they could move Crawford to the point, play Butler at 2, and Bradley at 3, giving them a very lengthy set of guards.
2. Manu Ginobili- SG, Argentina; PAR: 3.21
Foreign players generally don’t get all that much draft hype, precisely because people in the United States don’t have the opportunity to watch them night in and night out. Manu Ginobili is equipped with everything you want in a 2 guard. He can shoot with great range, plays tough, hard-nose defense, and doesn’t take nights off. I’d be surprised to see any team take a top 5 risk on Ginobili, but he should go in the top half of the first round. General managers tend to be pretty skepticalhippo.gif about taking risks on foreign players since the brand of basketball played overseas is so different from the NBA. Possible contract disputes and salary issues could also affect Ginobili’s draftability.
Offensively, Manu can light up the scoreboard. He’s shown that he can hit shots consistently from three-point range. In addition, Manu is unselfish and knows when to give up a shot to get a better one. His biggest skill as an offensive player, however, is his balance. Its not often that you would say a player hailing from the soccer continent is great at taking the ball to the rack, but Ginobili is just that. Not only is Manu great at attacking the basket, when he absorbs contact, he’s one of the shiftiest players I’ve ever seen. He can finish no matter where he gets hit at, and his body control and strength allows him to finish from angles that sometimes seem impossible.
He’s not an excellent defender, but he isn’t terrible either. When he’s checking his opponent on-ball, he likes to get right up in their face and make them beat him off the dribble. His length allows him to alter shots and sometimes make up for his average lateral quickness. Overall, Ginobili has great upside, but like all European players, may take some time to adapt to the American brand of basketball. Once he does, he should be a very good, consistent player.
Where he’d fit best: New Jersey Nets
The Nets have the Bucks’ first round pick this year, and getting a lengthy 2 guard to play alongside Allen Iverson would be a great pick up for them. Although many feel the Nets will go with Yao if they get the number one pick, I don’t see Iverson’s and Yao’s games meshing very well at all. On the other hand, Ginobili’s ability from long range would help Iverson stretch out defenses, making it easier for him to penetrate, whereas Yao would just clog the lane more. In addition, since Ginobili is such a good passer for a shooting guard, Iverson would be able to play off the ball more rather than being forced to run the offense all the time.
3. Yao Ming- C, Asia; PAR: 3.17
Although the PAR ratings don’t agree, Yao Ming is considered by most to be the best prospect in the entire draft. To put it simply, Ming Yao is a specimen. Despite below average leaping ability and a severe lack of lateral quickness, Yao has enough ability to be an elite post presence in the NBA for years to come. At 7’6’’, Yao will instantly become the tallest player in the league, matching inch for inch with the league’s current tallest player, Shawn Bradley. Naturally, comparisons have been drawn between the two. Both players limited vertically, and Bradley has a slightly larger wingspan than Yao (90’’ for Bradley to Yao’s 89’’). However, comparing Yao to Bradley may be selling the mammoth Chinaman short, despite the slightly shorter wingspan.
First, Bradley’s playing weight has been in the range of 240-260 pounds throughout his career. Personally, I’d put him more in the 235-240 range, but that’s beside the point. Yao, on the other hand, comes in at a rock solid 300 pounds. The added weight will benefit Yao, making him more durable in the long run compared to Bradley, who has battled nagging knee and hip injuries throughout his career. Although Yao ‘s better body proportionality is likely to give him a better ability to stay healthy compared to players of similar height, the fact is that anyone possessing Yao’s type of size is under increased vulnerability to injuries. The amount of force applied to Yao’s knees, hips, and feet is greater than it is for smaller players, so drafting Yao as your franchise player does come with a certain degree of risk. However, watching Yao play once will be enough to persuade any GM to draft him with the first pick, regardless of who currently occupies their team’s center spot.
Yao possesses the offensive fundamentals to make him an instant 20-10 center. As mentioned before, Yao has below-average jumping ability. While this may be cause for concern for most prospects entering the draft, Yao’s gravitational limits pose very alarm for his effectiveness over the course of a game. First, when posting up, Yao has a very high release on turn around jumpers, face-up jumpers, and hook shots. In addition, he has a quick release on his jump shot, as well as a quick first step/post spin, which allows him to get off virtually any shot he wants in the paint. On top of that, Yao has incredible touch on both hook shots and jump shots, as accentuated by his 76% free throw rating last season in Shanghai, an exceptional percentage for a man of his size.
On defense, his lack of athleticism becomes a bit more noticeable. He doesn’t possess the lateral quickness to alter a lot of shots outside the paint, and this quickness may hurt him when he has to guard athletic big men that can also take Yao outside the paint (e.g., Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett). However, most big men don’t possess the types of skill sets, so Yao’s liability on the defensive end will likely end up being a small one. Yao’s height will allow him to alter all kinds of shot within the paint, taking away a significant degree of the driving ability of opponents’ guards. Finally, Yao has the height to become a great rebounder in the NBA. He will snag a lot of rebounds solely due to his height, but what I was most impressed with was his ability to keep the ball high after rebounding and outlet it to guards without ever bringing the ball below his shoulders.
In summary, Yao is the surest thing this draft has to offer. He is often times called the biggest “boom-or-bust” prospect of this year’s draft, but his combination of size and skills will be too much for any team to pass up, regardless of who attains the first overall pick. Yao Ming will be the first pick, no matter what else you hear.
Where he’d fit best: Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are a young team, but definitely have some great pieces, and adding Yao would only increase their young talent. They have two solid young wing players in Ron Artest and Larry Hughes, both of whom should develop into good players. The reason why Yao works so well here, though, is Zach Randolph. He’s going to be an absolute monster, and his ability to take his defender outside of the paint with his developing midrange game complements Yao perfectly.
Jay Williams- PG, Duke; PAR: 3.17
Jay Williams comes into the draft an interesting and intriguing prospect. Some say he has the court vision and can handle the ball enough to become an NBA point guard. However, concern regarding his involvement in Duke’s offense, where he was primarily a shooting guard, have arisen in question of his ability to run an NBA offense. Others say his skills would be better utilized as an Allen Iverson-type shooting guard. Although not quite as quick as Allen Iverson, Williams possesses the same day-in-day-out competitive fire as Iverson, and both get to the hole extraordinarily well for their sizes. Regardless of the case, Williams will end up being a major difference maker for whoever is lucky enough to draft him.
Offensively, his major question mark is his “tweener” status as a guard. As previously stated, Williams has a great motor and is someone you can always count on to give his full effort. He has good range on his jumper (39% for his college career), but his potential ability to get his jumper off is a major question mark. As a point guard, he will be able to create his own shot and get it off cleanly over most players at the position. However, if he ends up becoming a two guard, this ability will diminish greatly. Most NBA shooting guards will have 3-4 inches over Williams, which will pose significant difficulty in getting his shot off.
The same question marks that surround him offensively concern his defensive capabilities. As a point guard, Williams is an above average on-ball defender, and his all-around intensity over the course of a game only helps his defense. However, as on the offensive side, Williams’ size will greatly affect his defense as a shooting guard. NBA-caliber shooting guards will have no problem getting their shots off over Williams, which will create considerable problems on the defensive end.
Taking all things into consideration, Williams appears to be better fit for the point guard position in the NBA. Although his assist numbers dropped off by almost an assist/game with the arrival of Chris Duhon at Duke his junior year, Williams still managed to average 6 assists/game for his collegiate career. While he’ll never be a pass first type of point guard, with the right coaching, system, and team he could become an elite NBA point guard.
Where he’d fit best: Miami Heat
The Heat just dealt their 2nd best player, Derek Fisher, in his prime, clearly indicating their plan to build for the future. With William Avery and Earl Watson now running the point, the Heat have been pitiful to watch. Paul Pierce has been forced to run the offense, which has led to him to turning the ball over constantly. Williams could come in and give the Heat some much needed scoring while running the offense, freeing up Pierce to play off the ball.
Carmelo Anthony- SF, Oak Hill Academy; PAR: 3.13
Although currently committed to Syracuse, many feel Anthony should and will declare himself eligible for the NBA draft. Coming from legendary Oak Hill Academy, Anthony has a skill set that should be illegal for 18 year olds to possess. At 6’8’’, he already has the size to be an NBA small forward, and is likely to only get bigger. He already has great strength, and is relentless taking the ball to the hole. Maturity issues are a concern with Anthony, but none enough to let him fall out of the top 10 if he were to declare for the draft this year.
Anthony doesn’t have NBA range yet, but his offensive game has been developing rapidly. He already has a great midrange game, and can back down smaller defenders and score over the top of them easily with his silky smooth turnaround jump shot. Carmelo is a tank taking the ball to the hole, and as he matures he could easily add another 25 pounds to his frame, making him even more of a load to stop getting to the rack. His offensive flaw is that he’s been known to be a little bit of a ball hog, but that can be solved as he matures.
As a defender Anthony tends to leave a lot to be desired. He’s been known to take plays off on the defensive end, which has earned him some well-earned criticism. The physical tools to be a good defender are there: he has exceptional strength, jumping ability, and quickness for his size, and if he can put it together mentally, he could become one of the most complete players in the league.
Where he’d fit best: Milwaukee Bucks
You could really say any of these 5 fit best with the Milwaukee Bucks. Melanie Silvresti (sp) could be drafted by the Bucks and they’d be a better team. The fact of the matter is that the Bucks need a franchise guy. They need someone more than what Yao can bring to the table. They need a guy that can one day be a top 3 player in this league, and Anthony is the only one I could see potentially being that guy someday. Milwaukee is collectively praying that the Grizzles go 0-for the rest of the season.
1. Caron Butler- SF, UConn; PAR: 3.25
PAR ratings out of the gates with a little stretch in the top player overall? It might not be as much of a stretch as you think. NBA executives have been salivating over Caron Butler since he burst on the college scene as a freshman last year, in which he averaged 15/7.5 and over 2 steals a game. Despite likely having been selected as a lottery pick in last year’s draft, Butler decided to return to UConn for his sophomore season to refine his skills. He followed up his rookie campaign at UConn by a stellar sophomore season in which he averaged 20/7.5 and over 2 steals a game. Most importantly, he increased his field goal percentage (from 43% to 48%) and especially his three-point field goal percentage (from 30% to 40%), which had previously been the only knock on his game.
Butler comes into the league as a hybrid wing player, with his more natural position likely to be small forward down the road. He still has room to add weight to his frame, and could easily be at a sturdy 245 pounds in a couple years. As he adds to his frame, his value as a defender will only increase, and he has the potential to be one of the league’s top stoppers on the wing depending on how hard he works. In a league where the top point producers tend to be wing players, having a potentially lock down defender that can guard either position like Butler can would be a massive asset for any team.
His offense game saw drastic improvements in his transition from a freshman to a sophomore. The fact that his 3 point shooting percentage skyrocketed from 30% to 40% shows just how hard of a worker Butler is. Drastic jumps like that don’t just happen, Butler worked his ass of in the offseason and, as a result, could end up being a top 5 draft pick. General managers love to see guys who aren’t satisfied with where they’re at, and if Butler continues to improve his jump shooting and adds on 20 more pounds of muscle, he has the raw potential to mold into an NBA superstar.
Where he’d fit best: Sacramento Kings
The Kings have not been able to get very much production out of any of their wing players this year. Michael Bradley has been decent, but has had trouble defending quicker 3s and isn’t big enough yet to guard power forwards. Aside of Bradley, the Kings have been extremely weak in their 2 and 3 guards, and Butler could come in and give them a difference maker at any position. In addition, if Joe Forte doesn’t end up working out for them, they could move Crawford to the point, play Butler at 2, and Bradley at 3, giving them a very lengthy set of guards.
2. Manu Ginobili- SG, Argentina; PAR: 3.21
Foreign players generally don’t get all that much draft hype, precisely because people in the United States don’t have the opportunity to watch them night in and night out. Manu Ginobili is equipped with everything you want in a 2 guard. He can shoot with great range, plays tough, hard-nose defense, and doesn’t take nights off. I’d be surprised to see any team take a top 5 risk on Ginobili, but he should go in the top half of the first round. General managers tend to be pretty skepticalhippo.gif about taking risks on foreign players since the brand of basketball played overseas is so different from the NBA. Possible contract disputes and salary issues could also affect Ginobili’s draftability.
Offensively, Manu can light up the scoreboard. He’s shown that he can hit shots consistently from three-point range. In addition, Manu is unselfish and knows when to give up a shot to get a better one. His biggest skill as an offensive player, however, is his balance. Its not often that you would say a player hailing from the soccer continent is great at taking the ball to the rack, but Ginobili is just that. Not only is Manu great at attacking the basket, when he absorbs contact, he’s one of the shiftiest players I’ve ever seen. He can finish no matter where he gets hit at, and his body control and strength allows him to finish from angles that sometimes seem impossible.
He’s not an excellent defender, but he isn’t terrible either. When he’s checking his opponent on-ball, he likes to get right up in their face and make them beat him off the dribble. His length allows him to alter shots and sometimes make up for his average lateral quickness. Overall, Ginobili has great upside, but like all European players, may take some time to adapt to the American brand of basketball. Once he does, he should be a very good, consistent player.
Where he’d fit best: New Jersey Nets
The Nets have the Bucks’ first round pick this year, and getting a lengthy 2 guard to play alongside Allen Iverson would be a great pick up for them. Although many feel the Nets will go with Yao if they get the number one pick, I don’t see Iverson’s and Yao’s games meshing very well at all. On the other hand, Ginobili’s ability from long range would help Iverson stretch out defenses, making it easier for him to penetrate, whereas Yao would just clog the lane more. In addition, since Ginobili is such a good passer for a shooting guard, Iverson would be able to play off the ball more rather than being forced to run the offense all the time.
3. Yao Ming- C, Asia; PAR: 3.17
Although the PAR ratings don’t agree, Yao Ming is considered by most to be the best prospect in the entire draft. To put it simply, Ming Yao is a specimen. Despite below average leaping ability and a severe lack of lateral quickness, Yao has enough ability to be an elite post presence in the NBA for years to come. At 7’6’’, Yao will instantly become the tallest player in the league, matching inch for inch with the league’s current tallest player, Shawn Bradley. Naturally, comparisons have been drawn between the two. Both players limited vertically, and Bradley has a slightly larger wingspan than Yao (90’’ for Bradley to Yao’s 89’’). However, comparing Yao to Bradley may be selling the mammoth Chinaman short, despite the slightly shorter wingspan.
First, Bradley’s playing weight has been in the range of 240-260 pounds throughout his career. Personally, I’d put him more in the 235-240 range, but that’s beside the point. Yao, on the other hand, comes in at a rock solid 300 pounds. The added weight will benefit Yao, making him more durable in the long run compared to Bradley, who has battled nagging knee and hip injuries throughout his career. Although Yao ‘s better body proportionality is likely to give him a better ability to stay healthy compared to players of similar height, the fact is that anyone possessing Yao’s type of size is under increased vulnerability to injuries. The amount of force applied to Yao’s knees, hips, and feet is greater than it is for smaller players, so drafting Yao as your franchise player does come with a certain degree of risk. However, watching Yao play once will be enough to persuade any GM to draft him with the first pick, regardless of who currently occupies their team’s center spot.
Yao possesses the offensive fundamentals to make him an instant 20-10 center. As mentioned before, Yao has below-average jumping ability. While this may be cause for concern for most prospects entering the draft, Yao’s gravitational limits pose very alarm for his effectiveness over the course of a game. First, when posting up, Yao has a very high release on turn around jumpers, face-up jumpers, and hook shots. In addition, he has a quick release on his jump shot, as well as a quick first step/post spin, which allows him to get off virtually any shot he wants in the paint. On top of that, Yao has incredible touch on both hook shots and jump shots, as accentuated by his 76% free throw rating last season in Shanghai, an exceptional percentage for a man of his size.
On defense, his lack of athleticism becomes a bit more noticeable. He doesn’t possess the lateral quickness to alter a lot of shots outside the paint, and this quickness may hurt him when he has to guard athletic big men that can also take Yao outside the paint (e.g., Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett). However, most big men don’t possess the types of skill sets, so Yao’s liability on the defensive end will likely end up being a small one. Yao’s height will allow him to alter all kinds of shot within the paint, taking away a significant degree of the driving ability of opponents’ guards. Finally, Yao has the height to become a great rebounder in the NBA. He will snag a lot of rebounds solely due to his height, but what I was most impressed with was his ability to keep the ball high after rebounding and outlet it to guards without ever bringing the ball below his shoulders.
In summary, Yao is the surest thing this draft has to offer. He is often times called the biggest “boom-or-bust” prospect of this year’s draft, but his combination of size and skills will be too much for any team to pass up, regardless of who attains the first overall pick. Yao Ming will be the first pick, no matter what else you hear.
Where he’d fit best: Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are a young team, but definitely have some great pieces, and adding Yao would only increase their young talent. They have two solid young wing players in Ron Artest and Larry Hughes, both of whom should develop into good players. The reason why Yao works so well here, though, is Zach Randolph. He’s going to be an absolute monster, and his ability to take his defender outside of the paint with his developing midrange game complements Yao perfectly.
Jay Williams- PG, Duke; PAR: 3.17
Jay Williams comes into the draft an interesting and intriguing prospect. Some say he has the court vision and can handle the ball enough to become an NBA point guard. However, concern regarding his involvement in Duke’s offense, where he was primarily a shooting guard, have arisen in question of his ability to run an NBA offense. Others say his skills would be better utilized as an Allen Iverson-type shooting guard. Although not quite as quick as Allen Iverson, Williams possesses the same day-in-day-out competitive fire as Iverson, and both get to the hole extraordinarily well for their sizes. Regardless of the case, Williams will end up being a major difference maker for whoever is lucky enough to draft him.
Offensively, his major question mark is his “tweener” status as a guard. As previously stated, Williams has a great motor and is someone you can always count on to give his full effort. He has good range on his jumper (39% for his college career), but his potential ability to get his jumper off is a major question mark. As a point guard, he will be able to create his own shot and get it off cleanly over most players at the position. However, if he ends up becoming a two guard, this ability will diminish greatly. Most NBA shooting guards will have 3-4 inches over Williams, which will pose significant difficulty in getting his shot off.
The same question marks that surround him offensively concern his defensive capabilities. As a point guard, Williams is an above average on-ball defender, and his all-around intensity over the course of a game only helps his defense. However, as on the offensive side, Williams’ size will greatly affect his defense as a shooting guard. NBA-caliber shooting guards will have no problem getting their shots off over Williams, which will create considerable problems on the defensive end.
Taking all things into consideration, Williams appears to be better fit for the point guard position in the NBA. Although his assist numbers dropped off by almost an assist/game with the arrival of Chris Duhon at Duke his junior year, Williams still managed to average 6 assists/game for his collegiate career. While he’ll never be a pass first type of point guard, with the right coaching, system, and team he could become an elite NBA point guard.
Where he’d fit best: Miami Heat
The Heat just dealt their 2nd best player, Derek Fisher, in his prime, clearly indicating their plan to build for the future. With William Avery and Earl Watson now running the point, the Heat have been pitiful to watch. Paul Pierce has been forced to run the offense, which has led to him to turning the ball over constantly. Williams could come in and give the Heat some much needed scoring while running the offense, freeing up Pierce to play off the ball.
Carmelo Anthony- SF, Oak Hill Academy; PAR: 3.13
Although currently committed to Syracuse, many feel Anthony should and will declare himself eligible for the NBA draft. Coming from legendary Oak Hill Academy, Anthony has a skill set that should be illegal for 18 year olds to possess. At 6’8’’, he already has the size to be an NBA small forward, and is likely to only get bigger. He already has great strength, and is relentless taking the ball to the hole. Maturity issues are a concern with Anthony, but none enough to let him fall out of the top 10 if he were to declare for the draft this year.
Anthony doesn’t have NBA range yet, but his offensive game has been developing rapidly. He already has a great midrange game, and can back down smaller defenders and score over the top of them easily with his silky smooth turnaround jump shot. Carmelo is a tank taking the ball to the hole, and as he matures he could easily add another 25 pounds to his frame, making him even more of a load to stop getting to the rack. His offensive flaw is that he’s been known to be a little bit of a ball hog, but that can be solved as he matures.
As a defender Anthony tends to leave a lot to be desired. He’s been known to take plays off on the defensive end, which has earned him some well-earned criticism. The physical tools to be a good defender are there: he has exceptional strength, jumping ability, and quickness for his size, and if he can put it together mentally, he could become one of the most complete players in the league.
Where he’d fit best: Milwaukee Bucks
You could really say any of these 5 fit best with the Milwaukee Bucks. Melanie Silvresti (sp) could be drafted by the Bucks and they’d be a better team. The fact of the matter is that the Bucks need a franchise guy. They need someone more than what Yao can bring to the table. They need a guy that can one day be a top 3 player in this league, and Anthony is the only one I could see potentially being that guy someday. Milwaukee is collectively praying that the Grizzles go 0-for the rest of the season.
