Post by jpripper88 on Jul 10, 2010 0:06:11 GMT -5
Potential, Potential, POTENTIAL!!!
Not to be confused with the famous “Location, location, location” catch phrase for the real estate market, “Potential, Potential, Potential” is the catch phrase for the meat market that is professional sports scouting. It is the word that has GMs salivating in every sport. Potential means that no matter how bad things look in the moment that there is a chance that things will improve. Some franchises bank on it for years and other see it as just a diversion that keeps you from your best in the present. The best plan most likely falls somewhere in between.
As the NBA shook things up with a “Creation” draft and teams were completely reconstructed across the league, this was the ultimate test of whether franchises felt potential superseded all, winning now was most important, or some combination of both. As we can’t know the exact thoughts every team in the league had on each player and their potential we will use the Central Scouting Ratings that are available to franchises and fans alike and provide a solid base for slotting talent and their potential.
Coming into the 2001 Creation Draft there were 41 players that were graded out to have A (grades ranged from A to F without +/- designation) and 45 players that were graded out to have D or F potential. Former Miami Heat star Tim Hardaway was the lone player deemed to have F potential. As the draft played out it was clear that A potential was something that no team was really willing to discount.
With only 41 players rated to have A potential and 29 NBA franchises that meant that the average A potential players per team was 1.41. Of course some teams used Potential as the focal point for their draft and ended up with more than the average share of these players, while other teams ended up with none.
Top of the Class
With the fourth pick in the Creation draft the New Jersey Nets were happy to select Allen Iverson, not only making him the cornerstone of their franchise, but also make him the first player with A rated potential to be taken in the draft. Iverson is a silky smooth guard that is adept at scoring around the rim and hitting outside jumpers when given too much space. He is also one of the game’s best perimeter defenders. Questions still loom about whether PG or SG is the place for him, but it is clear the sky is the limit. However, he will have to re-evaluate his feelings on practice if that potential is to be fulfilled to its fullest.
The second player, rated to have A potential, to get drafted was PG, Steve Nash. He was taken by the Golden State Warriors with the 5th overall selection. Nash obviously will be the focal point of their franchise moving forward, but he was selected for more than just his A potential rating. At 27 years old Nash is a seasoned NBA veteran that is a master handling the ball and possesses a deadly outside shot. The thinking is that despite his age he still has lots of untapped potential when it comes to his defense and his ability to finish around the rim. However, there are questions as to whether his potential is overstated at the moment.
The rest of the first round included 7 other players with A potential. Chauncey Billups went to the Seattle Supersonics, Jason Richardson went to his hometown Detroit Pistons, the Celtics nabbed Gilbert Arenas and Michael Redd, the Pacers took Tony Parker, the Spurs selected Joe Johnson, and the first round ended with the Portland Trailblazers plucking Eddy Curry straight out of high school. As is clear, the guard positions are where most of the first round players with A potential were focused.
-Average draft round of players with “A” Potential: 2.9
-Players with “A” Potential drafted in or before 3rd round: 27/41 = 66%
Only 2 players that were given As in Potential were not drafted in the 5th round or earlier: Primoz Brezec and Isaac Fontaine. Brezec was taken in the 7th round by the Dallas Mavericks. He is regarded as a big man that comes to the league with a lot to work on, but the potential to develop into a solid starting C down the line. It is unclear what the Mavericks’ plan is in regards to his development as they have 3 other Centers on their roster including the prize of their franchise, Tim Duncan. However, with patience Brezec might be a steal of this draft. He could also be a waste of a pick and cap space if he is not given a chance to develop and instead is just used as another practice body.
Fontaine on the other hand went through the entire draft and never heard his name called. He is a SG that struggles on offense, but has even more trouble with the defense side of the game. It is a wonder how he got an A potential grade. Perhaps someone meant to hit D instead of A when inputting the final grades. It is clear that this was not something that General Managers fell for. The fact that Fontaine went undrafted makes it clear that at the least GMs did not just go by a scouting report and tabbed Fontaine as a player to be part of their future.
(Editor’s Note: Since this article was prepared Isaac Fontaine was signed as an undrafted Free Agent by the Chicago Bulls and this signing is not reflected in the numbers below)
Distribution of “A” Potential Players
PG: 3
SG: 10 (including Allen Iverson)
SF: 11
PF: 10
C: 7
Eastern Conference Players: 15
Western Conference Players: 25
Team Breakdown
Eastern Conference
Most – 3; Boston Celtics & Detroit Pistons.
Least – 0; 5 teams tied.
Western Conference
Most – 4; San Antonio Spurs
Least – 0; LA Clippers & Phoenix Suns
As you can tell the Western Conference has decidedly been the conference that seems to be playing for the future and building their teams around the potential to grow together and eventually contend.
Overrated
As with anything there are always going to be ratings that seemingly were much too high. Here the reason most commonly given for why a player is believed to have been overrated in regards to their Potential is because they are already well into their career and thus have already grown as a player and are left without much room to expand on their talents.
Aaron McKie – McKie is a solid basketball player. He can defend and has a better than average offensive game, as well as a solid handle for a SG. However, he is 28 years old and has been in the league for 7 years. He has reached his potential and while he will provide solid minutes for the Knicks to expect him to improve more than minimally in the future is really reaching.
Isaac Fontaine – This one has already been touched on. It is more likely someone was asleep at security and this kid hacked into the mainframe to get his rating changed than that he becomes an NBA starter.
Brian Cardinal – While no one likes to profile, this seems like your token :ghost: . He plays into all the racial stereotypes of white PFs. He will help a team with his hustle and rebounding, but the skill is not there for him to improve to the point that his scouted potential suggests.
Kenny Satterfield – He is young and he is creative with the ball. He was a solid player at Cincinnati, but he is nothing more than a good backup moving forward. He is too loose with the handle and is better suited for the street ball or globe trotter type game.
Tony Parker – Who? Yep I asked myself the same thing. He is a well regarded FRENCH import that does nothing really well at this point except for run around the court. He will take a lot of work and who knows maybe the Pacers got a gem just like Central Scouting saw, but we are not yet convinced.
Who Should be “A”cing Potential
Jamal Crawford – Crawford is a versatile combo guard that was the 8th pick out of Michigan just last year. He has to develop a better handle to be a full time point, but his potential should have been higher and recognized that he could develop into one of the best young players in the game.
Rashard Lewis – Since being selected out of high school in 1998 Lewis has been improving steadily and still learning the finer points of the game. He is the kind of player that can play either the SF or PF positions and cause matchup problems and is so versatile he can even play minutes at SG. He still has a lot of game to build and he was just underrated.
Pau Gasol – Gasol is a skilled big man with huge potential. Why it was downplayed by Central Scouting I don’t know. He has to become a better rebounder and improve his defense, but he is a post that can be built around and is one of the best young players in the front court.
“D” is not just for Defense
We can’t talk just about the highest rated players. How about the guys that were thrown on the scrap heap by the Scouts? The guys that have to battle and battle for any respect are an interesting study as well.
As we mentioned earlier there were a few more players that were rated Ds or Fs in potential than As. In fact it was 45 to 41 respectively, with 1 player in that 45, Tim Hardaway, being rated an F for potential. Scouts generally grade a player’s potential as a D if they believe that they are clearly declining in skill. An F indicates that they believe it to be a drastic decline. As you can imagine if a team agrees with this assessment then this is a player that they are very likely to stay away from altogether and certainly not make a high draft choice.
The Best of the Bunch
The first player with a D potential rating that was drafted was PF Joe Smith by the Portland Trailblazers with the 29th pick in the 3rd round. However, this seems to clearly be a case of a mistake by Central Scouting. Smith is a 26 year old PF who can score inside, play solid defense and rebound the basketball. Although he has come close to reaching his ceiling as a player his still has yet to hit his peak and in no way is near a decline. This seems like a pick that could be a big coup for the Blazers.
Sometimes scouting firms make mistakes on evaluating a player. However, this is a mistake that has to be one of entry and not evaluation. If it was an evaluation mistake then someone better be looking for another job.
The next D potential player taken was C Vlade Divac by the Utah Jazz. This is a case that seems like a correct call. Divac is 33 and is starting to plateau. You could argue that he is still in the C potential category, but at the same time it is easy to expect a dip in his numbers this year and a continual decline from here on out.
-Average draft round for D potential players: 9.2
-Players with “D” Potential drafted before 10th round: 6/45 = 13%
Of the players drafted in the 10th round or later only 3 were under 30 years old. Tim Hardaway who was rated with F potential went in the 10th round to the Memphis Grizzlies despite the rating and being 36 years old. The two youngest D potential rated draftees were PF Kirk Haston of the Houston Rockets (22 years old) and Troy Hudson (25) of the Phoenix Suns, who went in the 10th and 12th rounds respectively.
Distribution of Drafted “D” Potential Players
PG: 6
SG: 1
SF: 1
PF: 3
C: 4
Eastern Conference Players: 4
Western Conference Players: 11
Team Breakdown
Eastern Conference
Most – 1; 4 teams tied.
Least – 0; 11 teams tied.
Western Conference
Most – 3; Phoenix Suns.
Least – 0; 4 teams tied
As you can tell the Western Conference has decidedly been the conference that seems to either have disagreed with scout assessments of these players or who believe they can get some solid contributions from these players despite their declining skill.
Underrated
As with anything there are always going to be ratings that seemingly were much too low. There were several players rated with D potential who seem to have been gravely underestimated. Most likely a result of incomplete scouting or incorrect association based on limited exposure.
Joe Smith – We already touched on Smith, but he clearly was a player that should not have been rated so lowly. He still has room to grow as a player and certainly has not yet reached his peak, let alone begun his decline. The Blazers capitalized on this miscalculation and nabbed Smith about a round after he should have gone.
Kirk Haston – Haston is a 6’10 PF rookie who played for Bob Knight and Mike Davis at Indiana. He has a nice scoring touch and already is an average rebounder. He was the 16th pick in the rookie draft and has clearly been misscouted here and the Rockets got a potential steal. They will bring him along slowly behind Kurt Thomas, but are encouraged with his actual potential (they rate it as a B) and believe they can build a PF that can play a great role in their future.
Troy Hudson – This might have been the D potential steal of the draft. To get Hudson in the 12th round based almost purely on others buying into his low potential rating is wonderful for the Suns. He has to improve his handle and defense, but his potential to do so is much higher than his D potential rating from Central Scouting suggests.
Who Cheated on their Potential Test?
Sam Perkins – Seriously Sam, who did you pay off? Listen, Perkins has had a very solid career as a big man who can score some points while hitting some 3s and banging inside, but he is going to 40 this season and for the last 4 years has already been in sharp decline. If there was one player who deserved the F potential rating it is Perk, but he somehow ended up with a C.
Michael Jordan – The greatest basketball player of all time. A six time champion. A 38 year old SG, who came out of retirement, and who has clearly lost a great amount of the skill and explosion that he once had. Jordan is still a fine player and can contribute to any team, even as a good starter. However, he is clearly in decline and definitely should have been rated as such. Everyone wants to “Be Like Mike” but the 1993 Mike, not the 2001 Mike. Scout with your eyes folks, not your hearts.
David Benoit – Some might even say, “Who?” when they read this name. For that I cannot blame you. Benoit peaked 6 years ago. That peak was scoring barely 10 points per game. He is lucky to even get 10 minutes per game in a church league at this point. I guess he is one of the rare NBAers to have some cash left over because it is pretty obvious he payed someone off.
Dan Majerle – Listen Majerle has given us some fun memories and is a likable guy, but he has been declining since he left Phoenix in 1995. He has played 36, 72, 48, 69, and 53 games the last 5 years. If you are building a front office or broadcast team Majerle may have C potential, but giving him anything better than a D potential as a basketball player in 2001 is nothing short of insane. Unless he has perfected a shot while sitting on the pine the Warriors took the C potential rating a little too much at face value.
Not to be confused with the famous “Location, location, location” catch phrase for the real estate market, “Potential, Potential, Potential” is the catch phrase for the meat market that is professional sports scouting. It is the word that has GMs salivating in every sport. Potential means that no matter how bad things look in the moment that there is a chance that things will improve. Some franchises bank on it for years and other see it as just a diversion that keeps you from your best in the present. The best plan most likely falls somewhere in between.
As the NBA shook things up with a “Creation” draft and teams were completely reconstructed across the league, this was the ultimate test of whether franchises felt potential superseded all, winning now was most important, or some combination of both. As we can’t know the exact thoughts every team in the league had on each player and their potential we will use the Central Scouting Ratings that are available to franchises and fans alike and provide a solid base for slotting talent and their potential.
Coming into the 2001 Creation Draft there were 41 players that were graded out to have A (grades ranged from A to F without +/- designation) and 45 players that were graded out to have D or F potential. Former Miami Heat star Tim Hardaway was the lone player deemed to have F potential. As the draft played out it was clear that A potential was something that no team was really willing to discount.
With only 41 players rated to have A potential and 29 NBA franchises that meant that the average A potential players per team was 1.41. Of course some teams used Potential as the focal point for their draft and ended up with more than the average share of these players, while other teams ended up with none.
Top of the Class
With the fourth pick in the Creation draft the New Jersey Nets were happy to select Allen Iverson, not only making him the cornerstone of their franchise, but also make him the first player with A rated potential to be taken in the draft. Iverson is a silky smooth guard that is adept at scoring around the rim and hitting outside jumpers when given too much space. He is also one of the game’s best perimeter defenders. Questions still loom about whether PG or SG is the place for him, but it is clear the sky is the limit. However, he will have to re-evaluate his feelings on practice if that potential is to be fulfilled to its fullest.
The second player, rated to have A potential, to get drafted was PG, Steve Nash. He was taken by the Golden State Warriors with the 5th overall selection. Nash obviously will be the focal point of their franchise moving forward, but he was selected for more than just his A potential rating. At 27 years old Nash is a seasoned NBA veteran that is a master handling the ball and possesses a deadly outside shot. The thinking is that despite his age he still has lots of untapped potential when it comes to his defense and his ability to finish around the rim. However, there are questions as to whether his potential is overstated at the moment.
The rest of the first round included 7 other players with A potential. Chauncey Billups went to the Seattle Supersonics, Jason Richardson went to his hometown Detroit Pistons, the Celtics nabbed Gilbert Arenas and Michael Redd, the Pacers took Tony Parker, the Spurs selected Joe Johnson, and the first round ended with the Portland Trailblazers plucking Eddy Curry straight out of high school. As is clear, the guard positions are where most of the first round players with A potential were focused.
-Average draft round of players with “A” Potential: 2.9
-Players with “A” Potential drafted in or before 3rd round: 27/41 = 66%
Only 2 players that were given As in Potential were not drafted in the 5th round or earlier: Primoz Brezec and Isaac Fontaine. Brezec was taken in the 7th round by the Dallas Mavericks. He is regarded as a big man that comes to the league with a lot to work on, but the potential to develop into a solid starting C down the line. It is unclear what the Mavericks’ plan is in regards to his development as they have 3 other Centers on their roster including the prize of their franchise, Tim Duncan. However, with patience Brezec might be a steal of this draft. He could also be a waste of a pick and cap space if he is not given a chance to develop and instead is just used as another practice body.
Fontaine on the other hand went through the entire draft and never heard his name called. He is a SG that struggles on offense, but has even more trouble with the defense side of the game. It is a wonder how he got an A potential grade. Perhaps someone meant to hit D instead of A when inputting the final grades. It is clear that this was not something that General Managers fell for. The fact that Fontaine went undrafted makes it clear that at the least GMs did not just go by a scouting report and tabbed Fontaine as a player to be part of their future.
(Editor’s Note: Since this article was prepared Isaac Fontaine was signed as an undrafted Free Agent by the Chicago Bulls and this signing is not reflected in the numbers below)
Distribution of “A” Potential Players
PG: 3
SG: 10 (including Allen Iverson)
SF: 11
PF: 10
C: 7
Eastern Conference Players: 15
Western Conference Players: 25
Team Breakdown
Eastern Conference
Most – 3; Boston Celtics & Detroit Pistons.
Least – 0; 5 teams tied.
Western Conference
Most – 4; San Antonio Spurs
Least – 0; LA Clippers & Phoenix Suns
As you can tell the Western Conference has decidedly been the conference that seems to be playing for the future and building their teams around the potential to grow together and eventually contend.
Overrated
As with anything there are always going to be ratings that seemingly were much too high. Here the reason most commonly given for why a player is believed to have been overrated in regards to their Potential is because they are already well into their career and thus have already grown as a player and are left without much room to expand on their talents.
Aaron McKie – McKie is a solid basketball player. He can defend and has a better than average offensive game, as well as a solid handle for a SG. However, he is 28 years old and has been in the league for 7 years. He has reached his potential and while he will provide solid minutes for the Knicks to expect him to improve more than minimally in the future is really reaching.
Isaac Fontaine – This one has already been touched on. It is more likely someone was asleep at security and this kid hacked into the mainframe to get his rating changed than that he becomes an NBA starter.
Brian Cardinal – While no one likes to profile, this seems like your token :ghost: . He plays into all the racial stereotypes of white PFs. He will help a team with his hustle and rebounding, but the skill is not there for him to improve to the point that his scouted potential suggests.
Kenny Satterfield – He is young and he is creative with the ball. He was a solid player at Cincinnati, but he is nothing more than a good backup moving forward. He is too loose with the handle and is better suited for the street ball or globe trotter type game.
Tony Parker – Who? Yep I asked myself the same thing. He is a well regarded FRENCH import that does nothing really well at this point except for run around the court. He will take a lot of work and who knows maybe the Pacers got a gem just like Central Scouting saw, but we are not yet convinced.
Who Should be “A”cing Potential
Jamal Crawford – Crawford is a versatile combo guard that was the 8th pick out of Michigan just last year. He has to develop a better handle to be a full time point, but his potential should have been higher and recognized that he could develop into one of the best young players in the game.
Rashard Lewis – Since being selected out of high school in 1998 Lewis has been improving steadily and still learning the finer points of the game. He is the kind of player that can play either the SF or PF positions and cause matchup problems and is so versatile he can even play minutes at SG. He still has a lot of game to build and he was just underrated.
Pau Gasol – Gasol is a skilled big man with huge potential. Why it was downplayed by Central Scouting I don’t know. He has to become a better rebounder and improve his defense, but he is a post that can be built around and is one of the best young players in the front court.
“D” is not just for Defense
We can’t talk just about the highest rated players. How about the guys that were thrown on the scrap heap by the Scouts? The guys that have to battle and battle for any respect are an interesting study as well.
As we mentioned earlier there were a few more players that were rated Ds or Fs in potential than As. In fact it was 45 to 41 respectively, with 1 player in that 45, Tim Hardaway, being rated an F for potential. Scouts generally grade a player’s potential as a D if they believe that they are clearly declining in skill. An F indicates that they believe it to be a drastic decline. As you can imagine if a team agrees with this assessment then this is a player that they are very likely to stay away from altogether and certainly not make a high draft choice.
The Best of the Bunch
The first player with a D potential rating that was drafted was PF Joe Smith by the Portland Trailblazers with the 29th pick in the 3rd round. However, this seems to clearly be a case of a mistake by Central Scouting. Smith is a 26 year old PF who can score inside, play solid defense and rebound the basketball. Although he has come close to reaching his ceiling as a player his still has yet to hit his peak and in no way is near a decline. This seems like a pick that could be a big coup for the Blazers.
Sometimes scouting firms make mistakes on evaluating a player. However, this is a mistake that has to be one of entry and not evaluation. If it was an evaluation mistake then someone better be looking for another job.
The next D potential player taken was C Vlade Divac by the Utah Jazz. This is a case that seems like a correct call. Divac is 33 and is starting to plateau. You could argue that he is still in the C potential category, but at the same time it is easy to expect a dip in his numbers this year and a continual decline from here on out.
-Average draft round for D potential players: 9.2
-Players with “D” Potential drafted before 10th round: 6/45 = 13%
Of the players drafted in the 10th round or later only 3 were under 30 years old. Tim Hardaway who was rated with F potential went in the 10th round to the Memphis Grizzlies despite the rating and being 36 years old. The two youngest D potential rated draftees were PF Kirk Haston of the Houston Rockets (22 years old) and Troy Hudson (25) of the Phoenix Suns, who went in the 10th and 12th rounds respectively.
Distribution of Drafted “D” Potential Players
PG: 6
SG: 1
SF: 1
PF: 3
C: 4
Eastern Conference Players: 4
Western Conference Players: 11
Team Breakdown
Eastern Conference
Most – 1; 4 teams tied.
Least – 0; 11 teams tied.
Western Conference
Most – 3; Phoenix Suns.
Least – 0; 4 teams tied
As you can tell the Western Conference has decidedly been the conference that seems to either have disagreed with scout assessments of these players or who believe they can get some solid contributions from these players despite their declining skill.
Underrated
As with anything there are always going to be ratings that seemingly were much too low. There were several players rated with D potential who seem to have been gravely underestimated. Most likely a result of incomplete scouting or incorrect association based on limited exposure.
Joe Smith – We already touched on Smith, but he clearly was a player that should not have been rated so lowly. He still has room to grow as a player and certainly has not yet reached his peak, let alone begun his decline. The Blazers capitalized on this miscalculation and nabbed Smith about a round after he should have gone.
Kirk Haston – Haston is a 6’10 PF rookie who played for Bob Knight and Mike Davis at Indiana. He has a nice scoring touch and already is an average rebounder. He was the 16th pick in the rookie draft and has clearly been misscouted here and the Rockets got a potential steal. They will bring him along slowly behind Kurt Thomas, but are encouraged with his actual potential (they rate it as a B) and believe they can build a PF that can play a great role in their future.
Troy Hudson – This might have been the D potential steal of the draft. To get Hudson in the 12th round based almost purely on others buying into his low potential rating is wonderful for the Suns. He has to improve his handle and defense, but his potential to do so is much higher than his D potential rating from Central Scouting suggests.
Who Cheated on their Potential Test?
Sam Perkins – Seriously Sam, who did you pay off? Listen, Perkins has had a very solid career as a big man who can score some points while hitting some 3s and banging inside, but he is going to 40 this season and for the last 4 years has already been in sharp decline. If there was one player who deserved the F potential rating it is Perk, but he somehow ended up with a C.
Michael Jordan – The greatest basketball player of all time. A six time champion. A 38 year old SG, who came out of retirement, and who has clearly lost a great amount of the skill and explosion that he once had. Jordan is still a fine player and can contribute to any team, even as a good starter. However, he is clearly in decline and definitely should have been rated as such. Everyone wants to “Be Like Mike” but the 1993 Mike, not the 2001 Mike. Scout with your eyes folks, not your hearts.
David Benoit – Some might even say, “Who?” when they read this name. For that I cannot blame you. Benoit peaked 6 years ago. That peak was scoring barely 10 points per game. He is lucky to even get 10 minutes per game in a church league at this point. I guess he is one of the rare NBAers to have some cash left over because it is pretty obvious he payed someone off.
Dan Majerle – Listen Majerle has given us some fun memories and is a likable guy, but he has been declining since he left Phoenix in 1995. He has played 36, 72, 48, 69, and 53 games the last 5 years. If you are building a front office or broadcast team Majerle may have C potential, but giving him anything better than a D potential as a basketball player in 2001 is nothing short of insane. Unless he has perfected a shot while sitting on the pine the Warriors took the C potential rating a little too much at face value.
