Post by jayrish on Sept 3, 2010 22:43:20 GMT -5
10. Andre Igoudala- SG/SF, Arizona; PAR Rating: 3.36
Igoudala enters the draft as a major project, but definitely has the tools necessary to become an impact player in TMBSL. While at Arizona, Igoudala showed flashes of why many TMBSL scouts consider him a surefire lottery pick, despite only averaging 13 PPG and shooting 45% from the field in his sophomore season. Igoudala has great athleticism, and has a rock solid build for a 19-year-old, which combined with his explosiveness suggests he might become a great defender at the next level. Despite this, there are question marks as to whether or not he’s fully committed himself to giving full effort defensively. Although this may be cause for concern for GMs, this can often times be attributed to the immaturity seen in younger prospects, so this issue may not end up being as big a deal as it currently seems.
Igoudala isn’t a great jump shooter, and he will likely struggle with adapting to the professional three-point line, which will limit him offensively for at least his first few years in the league. He does have great ability to take the ball to the hole, and his athleticism and strength allow him to absorb contact in the lane and finish. As a potential SG at the next level, Igoudala has a chance to become one of the best rebounders at the 2 guard position. Whoever drafts Igoudala should be prepared to be patient with his development, but it should be well worth it because he has a chance to become a dynamic playmaker.
Where he’d fit best: Milwaukee Bucks
Although Milwaukee doesn’t currently have a pick high enough to allow them to get Igoudala, if they were able to trade up and snag him, he could be a player they could build around. With both Kyle Korver and Wally Szczerbiak playing significant minutes for TMBSL’s most cursed franchise, they are in dire need of an athletic upgrade at the wing positions. While Igoudala probably will never be a cornerstone player for a championship team, I could definitely see him developing into a great 2nd option. The Bucks would also be able to give Igoudala a lot of minutes, and would be able to be patient with his development, because Milwaukee doesn’t plan on winning anytime soon and will hopefully get lucky in the upcoming drafts and eventually be able to grab a superstar.
9. Al Jefferson- PF/C, Prentiss (MS); PAR Rating: 3.42
As mentioned in the previous article, judging potential ratings is a little ambiguous, because it’s nearly impossible to tell just how much potential each prospect truly has. With that said, Al Jefferson is someone who I feel will end up being a top 5 player in this draft when all is said and done. Originally committed to Arkansas, Jefferson decided to take his talents straight to the league, and for good reason. Jefferson has an offensive post game well beyond his years, and he’s been on pro scouts’ radars for several years after dominating Mississippi high school competition like none before him. As a high school senior, Jefferson averaged—get ready for it—43 points, 18 rebounds, and 7 blocks per game. The part that’s particularly intriguing to scouts is that he didn’t dominate with overwhelming athleticism like most high school prospects, but instead used a wide repertoire of post moves to destroy the opposition.
Question marks surrounding Jefferson have to do with his height, defense, and athleticism. At only 6’9’’, Jefferson will be undersized as a pro post player, but the fact that he’s still only 17 suggests that he may not be done growing yet. Jefferson also doesn’t have great athletic ability, which when combined with his size concerns GMs on how effective he may be on the defensive end. However, Jefferson already weighs in at 255 pounds, and is excellent at using his wide frame to clear defenders out and grab boards. In summary, Jefferson’s post game shows just how hard he’s worked in developing his game thus far, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll do anything differently going forward. His offensive game should allow Jefferson to translate and be effective immediately in TMBSL, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a team grab him with a top 5 pick.
Where he’d fit best: Memphis Grizzlies
Without a low post player averaging double figures, the Grizzlies need someone who can come in and be a difference maker down low. Jefferson will mesh very well with their young nucleus, and if Jefferson develops like I believe he can, the Grizzlies could become a force to be reckoned with in the distant future. The Grizzlies’ lack of decent big men should allow Jefferson to come in and play big minutes immediately, which, although he’ll go through his rough patches, should give him great experience for once he fills out physically.
8. Shaun Livingston- PG/SF, Peoria Central (IL); PAR Rating: 3.47
Livingston, who originally committed to Duke, comes into TMBSL with a ridiculous amount of upside. He’s got the court vision of a point guard, but the size of a small forward, making him a truly unique prospect. He has a good outside jumper, great athleticism, and the size to play multiple positions at the next level. In the open court, Livingston has the ability to overpower defenders in getting to the rack, but also has the presence of mind to make the perfect pass to a cutting teammate when the defense least expects it. In the half court, Livingston absolutely has the ball-handling ability to run a pro offense, and is unselfish enough to defer to teammates when he needs to. If there’s one knack on his game offensively, it’s that he isn’t a great long-range shooter, but if he works on it hard enough and becomes an above average shooter, there will be nothing on the offensive end Livingston can’t do at a high level.
The position uncertainty that makes Livingston such an intriguing prospect also may end up being his greatest shortcoming. If he ends up being a full-time point guard, there’s a good chance the 6’7’’ Livingston will have a tough time staying in front of the smaller, quicker PGs in the league. On the other hand, most TMBSL SFs have 20+ pounds on the fairly thin Livingston, and whether or not he’ll have the strength to guard bigger SFs is doubtful. However, Livingston definitely has time to put on some weight, and if he does he should be able to be a manageable defender. TMBSL GMs will likely be able to look past Livingston’s position uncertainty, however, as he possesses a rare skill set rarely found in prospects, regardless of age.
Where he’d fit best: Chicago Bulls
The Bulls would be an absolutely perfect fit for Livingston. The Bulls have a great young guard in Jay Williams, who’s a score-first point guard being forced to run the offense. By bringing in Livingston, he’d be able to take on the responsibility of being their primary distributor and would allow Williams to play off the ball. In addition, the Bulls have a great young defender in Caron Butler, who has the strength to guard most wings in the league right now at the ripe age of 21. Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding Livingston’s ability to guard bigger SFs could be overshadowed, as Butler could guard whoever the other teams’ best wing player is. Adding someone like Livingston would give the Bulls, one of the league’s youngest teams, even more young talent going forward.
7. Devin Harris- PG, Wisconsin; PAR Rating: 3.47
Devin Harris is an ultra-quick point guard that could be an instant impact guy next year for whatever team drafts him. He should be able to get into the lane easily and finish around the basket, and his good size for a PG will allow him to finish over the top of defenders. Harris was a good three-point shooter while at Wisconsin, never shooting less than 36% from beyond the arc in any of his three seasons there. The major question marks surrounding Harris’ offensive game is whether or not he’ll be able to be a top-notch distributor at the next level. While at Wisconsin, he averaged only 3.1 APG for his career, but as a junior, led the team in assists after increasing his assist totals significantly.
Defensively, Harris has the lateral quickness to stay in front of even the quickest TMBSL PGs. This quickness, combined with his height, should make Harris one of the better defensive point guards in the league once he enters his prime. In addition, Harris averaged nearly 2 steals a game for his college career, and his hand quickness should allow him to do the same in TMBSL, which will lead to many fast break opportunities that will allow Harris’ offensive game to thrive. Harris is a certainty to be selected in the top 10, and should wind up being a great asset for years to come.
Where he’d fit best: Golden State Warriors
The Warriors currently have Damon Stoudemire running the point, but with his deal expiring this year, there’s doubt as to whether or not the aging PG is in the franchise’s future. If the Warriors decide to go another way, they’re going to need to grab some depth at the PG spot to fill his void. The Warriors are a team that really needs an impact player to go alongside up-and-coming big man Pau Gasol, and Harris could prove to be that perfect sidekick. There are a lot of routes the Warriors could go with their pick, but if they choose to allow Stoudemire to walk, going with Harris would make a lot of sense.
6. Luol Deng- SF, Duke; PAR Rating: 3.47
Coming out of high school, Luol Deng was one of the most sought-after prospects in the nation. Although he likely would have been a lottery selection had he come out last year, his one year at Duke allowed him to develop his game nicely, as Deng had a major impact on the Blue Devils’ success last year. Deng averaged 15 points and 7 boards as a freshman, and has likely put himself in the position to be a top 5 selection this year. Deng can hit long-range jumpers with good consistency, but Deng’s biggest strength offensively is his great midrange game. In addition, Deng has great size for a TMBSL SF, and should be able to come in and contribute immediately as a professional like he did at the college level.
Deng doesn’t have great foot speed, which may hinder his effectiveness as a defender. However, in his year at Duke, Deng managed to average over a steal and a block per game, and with his size, should be a capable defender in the pros. Deng will be a great rebounder, and he has the chance to average a double-double once he develops, a rarity for SFs. Deng has great upside at only 19-years-old, and is as much of a sure thing as there is in this year’s draft.
Where he’d fit best: San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs could use an impact running mate to go alongside Manu Ginobili, and adding a player like Deng would allow the Spurs to continue to get better as they move toward the future. Deng would be able to give the Spurs an added athletic dimension sorely needed on the wing, as Mike Dunleavy is probably better suited in a backup role. If the Spurs were able to land Deng, they’d have one of the better young wing tandems in the league between Deng and Ginobili.
5. Jameer Nelson- PG, St. Joseph’s; PAR Rating: 3.58
Jameer Nelson enters the draft an established floor general and a great leader. After being the primary reason to St. Joes’ incredible run to a 30-2 season, which landed them a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, Nelson enters the league with some major question marks as well as some major strengths. There’s little doubt that Jameer possesses the quickness necessary to make it on the next level, but at under 6 feet tall, scouts seriously question whether or not he’ll be able to cut it against guys 3-4 inches taller than he is. Nelson has a very good outside jumpshot, but whether or not he’ll be able to get it off against taller defenders remains to be seen.
Nelson will be one of the quickest guards in the league once he comes in, and he should be able to provide a lot of steals for whoever drafts him. However, its very likely that he’ll get overpowered by many PGs, as Nelson will be one of the smallest players in the league once he gets drafted. There is little question surrounding Nelson’s ability as a leader, though, and Nelson has been known to use the criticisms about his height as motivation to improve his game, and you won’t find anyone questioning Nelson’s will power. Nelson is also a player that will give teams highly sought after leadership qualities that cannot be overlooked when determining the worth of prospects. In addition, Nelson is a selfless player on the court, and he will be the glue behind whichever team drafts him.
Where he’d fit best: Miami Heat
The Heat have major issues at the PG position, and until they get an upgrade there’s no chance they’ll be able to compete for the playoffs. The Heat are equipped with some good defensive players, so Jameer’s liability can be overlooked to an extent because they have guys in the paint that can block shots. Outside of Paul Pierce, the Heat also struggle mightily from the three-point line, and Jameer could provide them with some much needed outside shooting ability.
4. Emeka Okafor- C, UConn; PAR Rating: 3.58
Okafor comes into the league after dominating the Big East in his final season at UConn, and along with fellow Huskie Ben Gordon is as much of a sure thing as you’ll find in this draft. A double-double machine, Okafor will be able to come in and immediately be a force on the defensive end, and is amongst the favorites to be TMBSL’s Rookie of the Year in ’04-’05. Okafor doesn’t yet possess a great post game, but his athleticism alone will allow him to clean up the boards and score a lot of garbage buckets. If Okafor can develop into a good low-post scorer, the sky is the limit for how good he can become.
As mentioned, Okafor will end up being a top-tier defensive big man in TMBSL. He’s a great shot blocker. He’s also a great rebounder, leading the Big East in rebounding last year and will likely average a double-double from the get-go. He’s built like a brick, and already has an NBA-ready body. Okafor is an incredibly sought after prospect, and should get consideration for being the top overall pick. I’d be shocked to see him slip past 3rd overall.
Where he’d fit best: Dallas Mavericks
Drew Gooden has been a disaster for the Mavericks ever since acquiring him as the centerpiece of the deal that sent away TMBSL legend Tim Duncan, and the fans of Dallas would love it if they could somehow deal him and move up to get Okafor. Besides Gooden, the Mavs have Samuel Dalembert holding down the center spot and Mehmet Okur, a capable PF. Okafor’s athleticism will allow him to be able to shift between the PF/C spots, and the Mavs would be able to have some leniency in deciding their line ups between these 3 young big men.
3. Ben Gordon- SG, UConn; PAR Rating: 3.64
The second of UConn’s dynamic duo, Gordon comes into the league an extremely polished scorer, and could someday be a 25 PPG scorer. Gordon can light it up from all over the floor, and is another one of the select few who will compete for TMBSL’s Rookie of the Year award. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Gordon come in and immediately be able to score 20 a game, and as he continues to mature as a player could become a premier scorer in the league. While there’s little doubt that Gordon will be able to pour it in throughout his pro career, the rest of his game raises uncertainty.
At only 6’3’’, Gordon will be an undersized SG, and as someone who didn’t play great defense in college, Gordon will likely struggle defensively as a pro. Gordon also isn’t someone who’s going to be a great distributor, so he provides little promise in being able to shift to the PG position. Therefore, Gordon is considered a tweener guard who will provide a lot of scoring, but little else. Regardless, scouts love his knack for scoring the basketball, and Gordon will almost certainly be a top 10 pick.
Where he’d fit best: Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have two great young wing players in Carmelo Anthony and Quentin Richardson, but don’t have great wing depth outside of those two. If they were able to bring into Gordon, he’d be able to come off the bench and provide instant offense for a team that struggles in putting the ball in the hole, as they averaged under 92 PPG last year. With Richardson’s ability to play both SG and SF, Gordon would be able to come in at SG and spell either Anthony or Richardson, and the Pacers would be a much better team offensively with a player of Gordon’s offensive caliber coming off the bench.
2. Vassilis Spanoulis- PG, Greece; PAR Rating: 3.67
Did Spanoulis somehow figure out a way to crack the PAR system? It appears to be so, as most see him being a second round pick, but PAR has decided that he grades out to be as good or better than any other prospect in the draft. Spanoulis is a relatively unknown prospect hailing from Greece, who led Maroussi Athens to the championship game of the Greek League each of the past two seasons. Spanoulis was also named the Greek League’s most improved player last season. A polished outside scorer, Spanoulis should be able to come into the league and be a great long-range shooter. Spanoulis is also good at distributing the basketball, averaging better than 6 assists per game in his final season playing for his Greek professional team.
Despite looking like a blue chip prospect, whether or not Spanoulis will be able to be equally effective in TMBSL as he was in Europe is a major question mark. In Europe, he was given the nickname “The Greek Steve Nash” by FIBA Europe fans, a high praise given the discrepancy in talent between the two leagues. Of all the prospects listed thus far, Spanoulis provides by far the largest amount of uncertainty. His ratings suggest that he has all the tools necessary to become a great professional player in TMBSL, but like most foreign players, GMs can never be certain just how well his game will translate into TMBSL.
Where he’d fit best: Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets will have to decide whether or not they’re going to re-sign Rafer Alston, and if they decide not to will be very thin at PG. While Damon Jones played well for them this season, there isn’t good reason to expect that he will continue to improve and might be better suited coming off the bench. If the Grizzlies do land Spanoulis and he is as good as these ratings suggest, they’ll have a great young nucleus with him alongside Jason Richardson, Ron Artest, and budding superstar Zach Randolph.
1. Dwight Howard- C, Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy (GA); PAR Rating: 3.67
Dwight Howard is an incredible athlete, coming in at 6’10’’ with a solid body and a 40 inch vertical. He ripped apart defenses in his senior season at SE Atlanta Christian, averaging 25 points, 18 boards, and over 8 blocks per game. While Okafor is likely more of a sure thing at this point, Howard’s upside may prove to be too overwhelming to resist taking him first overall. Howard is a little thin right now, but once he matures physically, he’ll be an absolute specimen. Howard won’t wow you with his offensive post game, but his incredible leaping ability allows him to sky over defenders and grab rebounders and finish down low.
Regardless of his superhuman athleticism, Howard will still be a project for the first few years of his TMBSL career. He has terrible touch around the rim, and will need to take some notes from Shaq on how to harness his strength and develop some touch around the basket. The uncertainty surrounding whether or not Howard will be able to become an accomplished scorer with his back to the basket might cost him becoming the top selection, and there are also questions regarding his desire to fully tap into his potential and become the best player he can be.
His presence on the defensive end rivals that of Okafor, and Howard will be one of the few players in recent years who will be able to come in out of high school and immediately bang with the big men of TMBSL. Howard’s amazing leaping ability makes him the premier shot blocker in this draft, and there’s a good chance he could extend this title to the best in the entire league. He’s also a guy that can make up for the defensive mistakes of his teammates, as he’s quick enough to adjust to driving guards and get up and swat a shot away at the drop of a hat. Finally, perhaps Howard’s best quality is his ability to sky over all others and grab rebounds. Howard has a good chance to lead the league in shot blocking and rebounding several times throughout what promises to be an illustrious TMBSL career. Like Okafor, I would be shocked to see Howard slip out of the top 3.
Where he’d fit best: Portland Trailblazers
The Blazers own the Pistons’ first round pick, one that is guaranteed to be outside the lottery. Regardless, the Blazers have some nice young prospects that could be enticing to high lottery teams wanting to trade down in the draft. Without a center averaging double digit points and rebounds, the Blazers could definitely use a low post player like Howard to help fill their lack of a post presence. If the Blazers were able to somehow move up and land Howard, they’d find themselves with a plethora of young talent, and could soon become one of the better teams in the West.
Igoudala enters the draft as a major project, but definitely has the tools necessary to become an impact player in TMBSL. While at Arizona, Igoudala showed flashes of why many TMBSL scouts consider him a surefire lottery pick, despite only averaging 13 PPG and shooting 45% from the field in his sophomore season. Igoudala has great athleticism, and has a rock solid build for a 19-year-old, which combined with his explosiveness suggests he might become a great defender at the next level. Despite this, there are question marks as to whether or not he’s fully committed himself to giving full effort defensively. Although this may be cause for concern for GMs, this can often times be attributed to the immaturity seen in younger prospects, so this issue may not end up being as big a deal as it currently seems.
Igoudala isn’t a great jump shooter, and he will likely struggle with adapting to the professional three-point line, which will limit him offensively for at least his first few years in the league. He does have great ability to take the ball to the hole, and his athleticism and strength allow him to absorb contact in the lane and finish. As a potential SG at the next level, Igoudala has a chance to become one of the best rebounders at the 2 guard position. Whoever drafts Igoudala should be prepared to be patient with his development, but it should be well worth it because he has a chance to become a dynamic playmaker.
Where he’d fit best: Milwaukee Bucks
Although Milwaukee doesn’t currently have a pick high enough to allow them to get Igoudala, if they were able to trade up and snag him, he could be a player they could build around. With both Kyle Korver and Wally Szczerbiak playing significant minutes for TMBSL’s most cursed franchise, they are in dire need of an athletic upgrade at the wing positions. While Igoudala probably will never be a cornerstone player for a championship team, I could definitely see him developing into a great 2nd option. The Bucks would also be able to give Igoudala a lot of minutes, and would be able to be patient with his development, because Milwaukee doesn’t plan on winning anytime soon and will hopefully get lucky in the upcoming drafts and eventually be able to grab a superstar.
9. Al Jefferson- PF/C, Prentiss (MS); PAR Rating: 3.42
As mentioned in the previous article, judging potential ratings is a little ambiguous, because it’s nearly impossible to tell just how much potential each prospect truly has. With that said, Al Jefferson is someone who I feel will end up being a top 5 player in this draft when all is said and done. Originally committed to Arkansas, Jefferson decided to take his talents straight to the league, and for good reason. Jefferson has an offensive post game well beyond his years, and he’s been on pro scouts’ radars for several years after dominating Mississippi high school competition like none before him. As a high school senior, Jefferson averaged—get ready for it—43 points, 18 rebounds, and 7 blocks per game. The part that’s particularly intriguing to scouts is that he didn’t dominate with overwhelming athleticism like most high school prospects, but instead used a wide repertoire of post moves to destroy the opposition.
Question marks surrounding Jefferson have to do with his height, defense, and athleticism. At only 6’9’’, Jefferson will be undersized as a pro post player, but the fact that he’s still only 17 suggests that he may not be done growing yet. Jefferson also doesn’t have great athletic ability, which when combined with his size concerns GMs on how effective he may be on the defensive end. However, Jefferson already weighs in at 255 pounds, and is excellent at using his wide frame to clear defenders out and grab boards. In summary, Jefferson’s post game shows just how hard he’s worked in developing his game thus far, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll do anything differently going forward. His offensive game should allow Jefferson to translate and be effective immediately in TMBSL, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a team grab him with a top 5 pick.
Where he’d fit best: Memphis Grizzlies
Without a low post player averaging double figures, the Grizzlies need someone who can come in and be a difference maker down low. Jefferson will mesh very well with their young nucleus, and if Jefferson develops like I believe he can, the Grizzlies could become a force to be reckoned with in the distant future. The Grizzlies’ lack of decent big men should allow Jefferson to come in and play big minutes immediately, which, although he’ll go through his rough patches, should give him great experience for once he fills out physically.
8. Shaun Livingston- PG/SF, Peoria Central (IL); PAR Rating: 3.47
Livingston, who originally committed to Duke, comes into TMBSL with a ridiculous amount of upside. He’s got the court vision of a point guard, but the size of a small forward, making him a truly unique prospect. He has a good outside jumper, great athleticism, and the size to play multiple positions at the next level. In the open court, Livingston has the ability to overpower defenders in getting to the rack, but also has the presence of mind to make the perfect pass to a cutting teammate when the defense least expects it. In the half court, Livingston absolutely has the ball-handling ability to run a pro offense, and is unselfish enough to defer to teammates when he needs to. If there’s one knack on his game offensively, it’s that he isn’t a great long-range shooter, but if he works on it hard enough and becomes an above average shooter, there will be nothing on the offensive end Livingston can’t do at a high level.
The position uncertainty that makes Livingston such an intriguing prospect also may end up being his greatest shortcoming. If he ends up being a full-time point guard, there’s a good chance the 6’7’’ Livingston will have a tough time staying in front of the smaller, quicker PGs in the league. On the other hand, most TMBSL SFs have 20+ pounds on the fairly thin Livingston, and whether or not he’ll have the strength to guard bigger SFs is doubtful. However, Livingston definitely has time to put on some weight, and if he does he should be able to be a manageable defender. TMBSL GMs will likely be able to look past Livingston’s position uncertainty, however, as he possesses a rare skill set rarely found in prospects, regardless of age.
Where he’d fit best: Chicago Bulls
The Bulls would be an absolutely perfect fit for Livingston. The Bulls have a great young guard in Jay Williams, who’s a score-first point guard being forced to run the offense. By bringing in Livingston, he’d be able to take on the responsibility of being their primary distributor and would allow Williams to play off the ball. In addition, the Bulls have a great young defender in Caron Butler, who has the strength to guard most wings in the league right now at the ripe age of 21. Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding Livingston’s ability to guard bigger SFs could be overshadowed, as Butler could guard whoever the other teams’ best wing player is. Adding someone like Livingston would give the Bulls, one of the league’s youngest teams, even more young talent going forward.
7. Devin Harris- PG, Wisconsin; PAR Rating: 3.47
Devin Harris is an ultra-quick point guard that could be an instant impact guy next year for whatever team drafts him. He should be able to get into the lane easily and finish around the basket, and his good size for a PG will allow him to finish over the top of defenders. Harris was a good three-point shooter while at Wisconsin, never shooting less than 36% from beyond the arc in any of his three seasons there. The major question marks surrounding Harris’ offensive game is whether or not he’ll be able to be a top-notch distributor at the next level. While at Wisconsin, he averaged only 3.1 APG for his career, but as a junior, led the team in assists after increasing his assist totals significantly.
Defensively, Harris has the lateral quickness to stay in front of even the quickest TMBSL PGs. This quickness, combined with his height, should make Harris one of the better defensive point guards in the league once he enters his prime. In addition, Harris averaged nearly 2 steals a game for his college career, and his hand quickness should allow him to do the same in TMBSL, which will lead to many fast break opportunities that will allow Harris’ offensive game to thrive. Harris is a certainty to be selected in the top 10, and should wind up being a great asset for years to come.
Where he’d fit best: Golden State Warriors
The Warriors currently have Damon Stoudemire running the point, but with his deal expiring this year, there’s doubt as to whether or not the aging PG is in the franchise’s future. If the Warriors decide to go another way, they’re going to need to grab some depth at the PG spot to fill his void. The Warriors are a team that really needs an impact player to go alongside up-and-coming big man Pau Gasol, and Harris could prove to be that perfect sidekick. There are a lot of routes the Warriors could go with their pick, but if they choose to allow Stoudemire to walk, going with Harris would make a lot of sense.
6. Luol Deng- SF, Duke; PAR Rating: 3.47
Coming out of high school, Luol Deng was one of the most sought-after prospects in the nation. Although he likely would have been a lottery selection had he come out last year, his one year at Duke allowed him to develop his game nicely, as Deng had a major impact on the Blue Devils’ success last year. Deng averaged 15 points and 7 boards as a freshman, and has likely put himself in the position to be a top 5 selection this year. Deng can hit long-range jumpers with good consistency, but Deng’s biggest strength offensively is his great midrange game. In addition, Deng has great size for a TMBSL SF, and should be able to come in and contribute immediately as a professional like he did at the college level.
Deng doesn’t have great foot speed, which may hinder his effectiveness as a defender. However, in his year at Duke, Deng managed to average over a steal and a block per game, and with his size, should be a capable defender in the pros. Deng will be a great rebounder, and he has the chance to average a double-double once he develops, a rarity for SFs. Deng has great upside at only 19-years-old, and is as much of a sure thing as there is in this year’s draft.
Where he’d fit best: San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs could use an impact running mate to go alongside Manu Ginobili, and adding a player like Deng would allow the Spurs to continue to get better as they move toward the future. Deng would be able to give the Spurs an added athletic dimension sorely needed on the wing, as Mike Dunleavy is probably better suited in a backup role. If the Spurs were able to land Deng, they’d have one of the better young wing tandems in the league between Deng and Ginobili.
5. Jameer Nelson- PG, St. Joseph’s; PAR Rating: 3.58
Jameer Nelson enters the draft an established floor general and a great leader. After being the primary reason to St. Joes’ incredible run to a 30-2 season, which landed them a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, Nelson enters the league with some major question marks as well as some major strengths. There’s little doubt that Jameer possesses the quickness necessary to make it on the next level, but at under 6 feet tall, scouts seriously question whether or not he’ll be able to cut it against guys 3-4 inches taller than he is. Nelson has a very good outside jumpshot, but whether or not he’ll be able to get it off against taller defenders remains to be seen.
Nelson will be one of the quickest guards in the league once he comes in, and he should be able to provide a lot of steals for whoever drafts him. However, its very likely that he’ll get overpowered by many PGs, as Nelson will be one of the smallest players in the league once he gets drafted. There is little question surrounding Nelson’s ability as a leader, though, and Nelson has been known to use the criticisms about his height as motivation to improve his game, and you won’t find anyone questioning Nelson’s will power. Nelson is also a player that will give teams highly sought after leadership qualities that cannot be overlooked when determining the worth of prospects. In addition, Nelson is a selfless player on the court, and he will be the glue behind whichever team drafts him.
Where he’d fit best: Miami Heat
The Heat have major issues at the PG position, and until they get an upgrade there’s no chance they’ll be able to compete for the playoffs. The Heat are equipped with some good defensive players, so Jameer’s liability can be overlooked to an extent because they have guys in the paint that can block shots. Outside of Paul Pierce, the Heat also struggle mightily from the three-point line, and Jameer could provide them with some much needed outside shooting ability.
4. Emeka Okafor- C, UConn; PAR Rating: 3.58
Okafor comes into the league after dominating the Big East in his final season at UConn, and along with fellow Huskie Ben Gordon is as much of a sure thing as you’ll find in this draft. A double-double machine, Okafor will be able to come in and immediately be a force on the defensive end, and is amongst the favorites to be TMBSL’s Rookie of the Year in ’04-’05. Okafor doesn’t yet possess a great post game, but his athleticism alone will allow him to clean up the boards and score a lot of garbage buckets. If Okafor can develop into a good low-post scorer, the sky is the limit for how good he can become.
As mentioned, Okafor will end up being a top-tier defensive big man in TMBSL. He’s a great shot blocker. He’s also a great rebounder, leading the Big East in rebounding last year and will likely average a double-double from the get-go. He’s built like a brick, and already has an NBA-ready body. Okafor is an incredibly sought after prospect, and should get consideration for being the top overall pick. I’d be shocked to see him slip past 3rd overall.
Where he’d fit best: Dallas Mavericks
Drew Gooden has been a disaster for the Mavericks ever since acquiring him as the centerpiece of the deal that sent away TMBSL legend Tim Duncan, and the fans of Dallas would love it if they could somehow deal him and move up to get Okafor. Besides Gooden, the Mavs have Samuel Dalembert holding down the center spot and Mehmet Okur, a capable PF. Okafor’s athleticism will allow him to be able to shift between the PF/C spots, and the Mavs would be able to have some leniency in deciding their line ups between these 3 young big men.
3. Ben Gordon- SG, UConn; PAR Rating: 3.64
The second of UConn’s dynamic duo, Gordon comes into the league an extremely polished scorer, and could someday be a 25 PPG scorer. Gordon can light it up from all over the floor, and is another one of the select few who will compete for TMBSL’s Rookie of the Year award. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Gordon come in and immediately be able to score 20 a game, and as he continues to mature as a player could become a premier scorer in the league. While there’s little doubt that Gordon will be able to pour it in throughout his pro career, the rest of his game raises uncertainty.
At only 6’3’’, Gordon will be an undersized SG, and as someone who didn’t play great defense in college, Gordon will likely struggle defensively as a pro. Gordon also isn’t someone who’s going to be a great distributor, so he provides little promise in being able to shift to the PG position. Therefore, Gordon is considered a tweener guard who will provide a lot of scoring, but little else. Regardless, scouts love his knack for scoring the basketball, and Gordon will almost certainly be a top 10 pick.
Where he’d fit best: Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have two great young wing players in Carmelo Anthony and Quentin Richardson, but don’t have great wing depth outside of those two. If they were able to bring into Gordon, he’d be able to come off the bench and provide instant offense for a team that struggles in putting the ball in the hole, as they averaged under 92 PPG last year. With Richardson’s ability to play both SG and SF, Gordon would be able to come in at SG and spell either Anthony or Richardson, and the Pacers would be a much better team offensively with a player of Gordon’s offensive caliber coming off the bench.
2. Vassilis Spanoulis- PG, Greece; PAR Rating: 3.67
Did Spanoulis somehow figure out a way to crack the PAR system? It appears to be so, as most see him being a second round pick, but PAR has decided that he grades out to be as good or better than any other prospect in the draft. Spanoulis is a relatively unknown prospect hailing from Greece, who led Maroussi Athens to the championship game of the Greek League each of the past two seasons. Spanoulis was also named the Greek League’s most improved player last season. A polished outside scorer, Spanoulis should be able to come into the league and be a great long-range shooter. Spanoulis is also good at distributing the basketball, averaging better than 6 assists per game in his final season playing for his Greek professional team.
Despite looking like a blue chip prospect, whether or not Spanoulis will be able to be equally effective in TMBSL as he was in Europe is a major question mark. In Europe, he was given the nickname “The Greek Steve Nash” by FIBA Europe fans, a high praise given the discrepancy in talent between the two leagues. Of all the prospects listed thus far, Spanoulis provides by far the largest amount of uncertainty. His ratings suggest that he has all the tools necessary to become a great professional player in TMBSL, but like most foreign players, GMs can never be certain just how well his game will translate into TMBSL.
Where he’d fit best: Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets will have to decide whether or not they’re going to re-sign Rafer Alston, and if they decide not to will be very thin at PG. While Damon Jones played well for them this season, there isn’t good reason to expect that he will continue to improve and might be better suited coming off the bench. If the Grizzlies do land Spanoulis and he is as good as these ratings suggest, they’ll have a great young nucleus with him alongside Jason Richardson, Ron Artest, and budding superstar Zach Randolph.
1. Dwight Howard- C, Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy (GA); PAR Rating: 3.67
Dwight Howard is an incredible athlete, coming in at 6’10’’ with a solid body and a 40 inch vertical. He ripped apart defenses in his senior season at SE Atlanta Christian, averaging 25 points, 18 boards, and over 8 blocks per game. While Okafor is likely more of a sure thing at this point, Howard’s upside may prove to be too overwhelming to resist taking him first overall. Howard is a little thin right now, but once he matures physically, he’ll be an absolute specimen. Howard won’t wow you with his offensive post game, but his incredible leaping ability allows him to sky over defenders and grab rebounders and finish down low.
Regardless of his superhuman athleticism, Howard will still be a project for the first few years of his TMBSL career. He has terrible touch around the rim, and will need to take some notes from Shaq on how to harness his strength and develop some touch around the basket. The uncertainty surrounding whether or not Howard will be able to become an accomplished scorer with his back to the basket might cost him becoming the top selection, and there are also questions regarding his desire to fully tap into his potential and become the best player he can be.
His presence on the defensive end rivals that of Okafor, and Howard will be one of the few players in recent years who will be able to come in out of high school and immediately bang with the big men of TMBSL. Howard’s amazing leaping ability makes him the premier shot blocker in this draft, and there’s a good chance he could extend this title to the best in the entire league. He’s also a guy that can make up for the defensive mistakes of his teammates, as he’s quick enough to adjust to driving guards and get up and swat a shot away at the drop of a hat. Finally, perhaps Howard’s best quality is his ability to sky over all others and grab rebounds. Howard has a good chance to lead the league in shot blocking and rebounding several times throughout what promises to be an illustrious TMBSL career. Like Okafor, I would be shocked to see Howard slip out of the top 3.
Where he’d fit best: Portland Trailblazers
The Blazers own the Pistons’ first round pick, one that is guaranteed to be outside the lottery. Regardless, the Blazers have some nice young prospects that could be enticing to high lottery teams wanting to trade down in the draft. Without a center averaging double digit points and rebounds, the Blazers could definitely use a low post player like Howard to help fill their lack of a post presence. If the Blazers were able to somehow move up and land Howard, they’d find themselves with a plethora of young talent, and could soon become one of the better teams in the West.
