Post by jayrish on Sept 2, 2010 19:21:42 GMT -5
Greetings and welcome to the second ever PAR ratings article for TMBSL, which focuses on the 2004 rookie draft. Like all rough drafts, the 2002 version of the ratings weren’t as accurate as hoped, but like our mulatto president, I’m always hopeful for change. The new and improved PAR rating system takes on a more parabolic form, with greater weight being placed on higher grades. For example, a guard with B handles and D+ rebounding will be deemed a much better prospect than another guard with C+ handles and C+ rebounding.
Looking back at the 2002 draft, it was obvious to me that the PAR system needed some tweaking. As you’ll see below, I have corrected for the fact that certain grades simply don’t matter as much to a prospect of a certain position. In my last column, I had Amare Stoudemire as the 11th best prospect overall according to the PAR ratings. After re-crunching the numbers into the new system, however, Amare jumped up to #2 overall. This provides a much more realistic position, given that he’s shot better than 50% and averaged over 20 points and 7 rebounds in his career thus far, and he still isn’t able to buy you a drank. For comparison’s sake, I recalculated the PAR ratings for all 15 prospects that were available at the time I wrote the last article, and their new rank, PAR rating, and previous rank are listed below. Please note that Mike Dunleavey and Carlos Boozer were omitted in the recalculations because they didn’t end up declaring for the 2002 draft.
New Rank—Player—New PAR Rating—(Old Rank)
1. Yao Ming—3.53—(3)
2. Amare Stoudemire—3.47—(11)
3. Caron Butler—3.47—(1)
4. Manu Ginobili—3.44—(2)
5. Drew Gooden—3.42—(6)
6. Dajuan Wagner—3.39—(9)
7. Jason Williams—3.36—(4)
8. Carmelo Anthony—3.31—(5)
9. Kareem Rush—3.25—(7)
10. Fred Jones—3.25—(13)
11. Jared Jefferies—3.19—(8)
12. Nene Hilario—3.06—(14)
13. Tayshaun Prince—3.06—(12)
Looking at the new ratings and comparing them to how well the players have actually become provides good reason to believe that the new system is much more efficient than its predecessor. However, a couple kinks still exist, with which I consider to be the major one discussed below.
The primary downfall of the PAR rating system has to do with potential ratings. The fact that GMs cannot see true potential—or any true grades for that matter—leaves us and me at a distinct disadvantage for scouting and grading prospects. Of course, what would be the fun of the league if we could see exactly how good each and every prospect is? The uncertainty of players’ abilities is a large part of what makes this league so entertaining. Regardless, this fact leaves major flaws in my ability to devise a system that is completely accurate. As mentioned, this burden is most significant in potential ratings. For example, if you look at the 2002 draft profiles, you’ll see that both Carmelo Anthony and Drew Gooden have ‘A’ potential grades. Anthony, who was 18 at the time of the 2002 draft, has since increased his outside scoring up one level (C+ to B-) and his defense up 3 levels (C+ to B+). On the other hand, Gooden, who was 21 at draft time, has only increased his defense up one level (C+ to B-), and has seen his scoring drop a level (B- to C+). On top of that, Gooden, who is 3 years Anthony’s elder, has dropped in potential from an ‘A’ to a ‘B’, while the 20-year-old Anthony still boasts an ‘A’ potential.
While it would be easy to assume that an 18 year old has a higher potential rating than a 19 year old, the fact is that the gray area presented to us by the scouted vs. true potential ratings leaves us completely in the dark. It is just as likely that a player declaring straight out of high school has almost no chance to improve and succeed in the league as there is that a player with a few years playing college ball has the chance to get exponentially better as his career progresses. Therefore, although it is likely that younger players have higher potential ratings, to make these types of assumptions based on age wouldn’t be acceptable, as we will never know for sure the true potential ratings for any prospects.
Without further adieu, let’s get to the PAR ratings for the 2004 draft class. This year, after being satisfied with how the rankings came out, I decided to do a top 20 list rather than 13. In this article I will list 11-20 in reverse order, and I’ll do the top 10 on the road tomorrow, and will hopefully have the second article up by tomorrow evening.
20. Dorell Wright- SG/SF, South Kent Prep (CT); PAR Rating: 3.03
Wright is an explosive athlete with tons of upside. Although he doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, he possesses an all-around game that gives him the potential to eventually develop into a very solid NBA player. Wright could definitely use help on his outside jumper, but his nearly 30 PPG in high school shows that he has a knack for scoring the basketball, despite a sub-par jumpshot.
Although he could use some major work on his lateral quickness, the fact that he averaged 14 RPG along with nearly 5 blocks in high school provides intrigue into the effort he gives on the defensive side of the ball. At 6’8’’, he’s going to need to add 20 pounds of muscle to his frame in order to be able to cut it against the great athletes found in TMBSL, but if he can do that while adding the issues with his quickness, he could develop into an elite defensive small forward. Regardless, whoever drafts him should not expect much from him right away, because Wright is a major project.
Where he’d fit best: Sacramento Kings
The Kings are struggling trying to get decent minutes out of their SG position. Although Joseph Forte was decent for them before getting injured, there are still major question marks as to whether or not he can cut it as a full-time TMBSL SG. If the Kings were to bring in Wright, a hybrid SG/SF, he would be able to give them some versatility in their lineup while playing alongside Tayshaun Prince, a hybrid SF/PF. In addition, it would give them some much needed depth and athleticism on the wing, as Carlos Delfino and Casey Jacobsen have disappointed in Sacramento thus far.
19. Kris Humphries- PF, Minnesota; PAR Rating: 3.11
After deciding to spurn both TMBSL and Duke coming out of high school, Humphries ended up attending home state school Minnesota for a year. Although the Gophers had a brutal season, Humphries managed to average 22 PPG and 10 RPG, both tops in the big 10. Humphries has a well-developed all-around game, and has shown to be a good scorer with his back to the basket, as well as an above-average rebounder and defender. However, putting up huge numbers in the Big 10 is a much different animal than TMBSL, and uncertainty exists as to whether Humphries possesses the athleticism and strength necessary to be a successful player in the league.
While Humphries did dominate the Big 10 to TMBSL scouts’ liking last year, major red flags arose throughout the year, as Humphries was often times accused of being a selfish player. There was criticism that Humphries played only to benefit his stats, so as to get a better standing amongst other TMBSL prospects for the upcoming draft. However, his numbers still don’t lie, and Humphries could end up being a late lottery selection, and should develop into a consistent big man.
Where he’d fit best: Washington Bullzards
The Bullzards have struggled with finding their main guy at the PF position, as neither Samaki Walker nor Jerome Williams have given them any reason to be excited about their big man complement to the best center in the game, Shaquille O”Neal. In addition, there is little chance that the Bullzards re-sign both of their PFs, as both their deals expire within the next two years, so getting a young big man to fill that future void is crucial. As Shaq continues to age, it is likely that Nenad Kristic eventually becomes their center of the future, and Humphries and Kristic would give them a nice young core of big men once Shaq does finally decide to hang them up. On second thought, they’re both white, so maybe not.
18. JR Smith- SG, St. Benedicts Prep (NJ); PAR Rating: 3.14
JR Smith is an extremely gifted athlete with a world-class vertical. He will be among the elite dunkers of TMBSL as soon as he gets drafted. In addition, Smith has unlimited range with his jumpshot, and will be someone who can definitely hit TMBSL three pointers with consistency. Unfortunately, although Earl possesses all the physical tools necessary to be an all star caliber player, whether or not he’ll ever put it together mentally is a completely different story. He’s been known to be a ball hog, and his shot selection at times leaves people wondering what the hell he’s thinking with the ball in his hands.
Earl’s mental lapses are even more noticeable on the defensive side of the court. It is expected that someone with his level of athleticism should be able to be a great defensive player, but that is far from the case. To put it bluntly, Smith does not give a fuck about defense. In order for Smith to ever tap into his potential in TMBSL, he’s going to have to completely change the way he approaches the game, because as much talent as he displays on offense, his athleticism suggests that he could be an even better defender. Whether or not he has the drive to become a great defensive player will likely hinge on who coaches him and, more importantly, how he matures. If he does, though, he could become a perennial TMBSL all star. Thus, Smith’s combination of incredible talent and mental immaturity make him perhaps this year’s biggest boom-or-bust pick.
Where he’d fit best: Seattle Supersonics
The Sonics only have one true shooting guard on their roster, and if they were to add Smith they’d have a perfect fit for their up-tempo brand of basketball. In addition, they already have an established SG in Kerry Kittles, who is a seasoned veteran and would give Smith the opportunity to come off the bench and provide a spark for a couple of years until he’s ready to be a full-time starter. In addition, the Sonics don’t exactly love to play hard-nosed defense (they allow almost 102 PPG), but still have a great chance at making TMBSL Finals this year, and if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. However, getting into a run-and-gun type of system seen in Seattle may end up being Smith’s kryptonite, as he’s probably better off playing for a coach that can light a fire under his ass and force him to take defense seriously.
17. Kevin Martin- SG, Western Carolina; PAR Rating: 3.19
Martin comes into TMBSL an accomplished collegiate scorer, averaging nearly 25 points a game for the Western Carolina in his junior season. Martin has shown the ability to score in a number of ways, and there aren’t many players in this draft who can measure up to Martin’s offensive arsenal. However, scouts have questioned whether or not Martin will be able to get his jumper off against bigger defenders in TMBSL, as he has a Shawn Marion-like release from his sternum. Regardless, his jumpshot is still above average, and if he can figure out how to get it off, he should be able to adjust to the extended three-point line and be a great outside shooter. Martin is also relentless at taking the ball to the rack, which allows him to get to the free throw line several times a game, where he shot 84% in his college career. Because of his hard-nosed approach in taking the ball to the rim, however, Martin takes a lot of abuse from bigger defenders, which at a rail-thin 185 pounds, could be a cause for concern, as the larger athletes in TMBSL will make Martin pay when driving the lane.
Martin is also not by any means a great defender. As mentioned, he’s extremely thin for being 6’7’’, and will likely get abused by bigger, stronger guards. In addition, he doesn’t have great foot speed and tends to get beat off the dribble more than scouts would like to see. Scouts are also worried about the level of competition Martin faced while playing for Western Carolina. Even with a questionable physical build and lackluster defense, Martin could end up a lottery selection, as his uncanny ability to get to the hoop and expanding outside game will be very attractive to league GMs.
Where he’d fit best: New York Knicks
The Knicks have given the majority of their minutes at SG to Matt Barnes. While Barnes has been decent, the Knicks could definitely use an upgrade at the position, which Martin could certainly provide. If Martin were to go to the Knicks and become a legitimate starter, his lack of defensive prowess would be able to be masked to an extent, as the Knicks have three great defensive wing players in Barnes, LeBron James, and Richard Jefferson to shoulder the defensive burden.
16. Anderson Varejao- PF/C, Brazil; PAR Rating: 3.21
Likely a sleeper in this year’s draft, Varejao possesses a unique blend of athleticism and size that you simply can’t teach. Varejao has spent the past few seasons playing in Spain for FC Barcelona, where he hasn’t been great, but has certainly contributed, helping Barcelona win their first Euroleague Championship in 2003. Despite having already played 3 seasons of professional basketball, Varejao is still only 21 years old, and has room to add weight onto his frame and become a great defensive low post presence.
Varejao is not a prospect that will ever put up great scoring numbers, but what he will provide the team that drafts him are the intangibles that are immeasurable on a stat sheet. He gives full effort on the court every night, and a motor like his blended with his athleticism is something that can be an asset to every TMBSL team. Therefore, if you’re looking for a guy to come off the bench and provide great defense and a ton of energy, this is your guy. His hair is fucking gay, though.
Where he’d fit best: Utah Jazz
Utah is a team predicated on great team defense and unselfishness on the offensive end, and that’s exactly what Varejao brings to the table. All 3 of the Jazz’s centers have expiring contracts this year, and given Varejao’s versatility with regards to his position, they could bring him in to pick up the minutes left by one of their centers, should they choose not to re-sign all 3. In addition, if Varejao shows he isn’t able to successfully guard bigger TMBSL centers, sim-Raef has the ability to man the 5 spot while Lorenzen Wright is on the bench, giving them a number of options as to how they want to fill their frontcourt minutes.
15. Trevor Ariza- SF, UCLA; PAR Rating: 3.25
Like JR Smith, Ariza is oozing with athleticism and potential. While Ariza’s outside game might not be as far developed as Smith’s, he gives a much better effort on the defensive end and appears to have a much better work ethic. In his lone year at UCLA, Ariza didn’t put up overly impressive stats, but showed flashes of what he could become and has the type of game that usually translates well to the pros. He will need to put in a lot of work in order to improve upon his less than 24% shooting from the three-point arc, but at 19 years young he has plenty of time to do so.
Ariza excelled on the defensive side of the ball at UCLA, and was amongst the Pac 10’s leading steal men last season. He has a solid TMBSL body at 6’7’’ and nearly 200 pounds, but definitely has some room to fill out and become an even stronger defender. As someone who could very well slip into the latter part of the first round, Ariza has a chance to be a major steal for a contender with a late round pick looking to add some defensive depth off the bench.
Where he’d fit best: Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have the best player in TMBSL in Kobe Bryant, but besides him the Canadas are very thin on the wings. George Lynch has been a disaster at the SF spot this season, so if Ariza landed here he could potentially come in and start from day one. In addition, playing alongside someone like Kobefag Bryant, who works harder on his game than anyone else in the league, would give Ariza a good role model to look up to as he tries to expand his offensive game and become a complete player. Landing Ariza would also help keep the Raptors among the most elite defensive teams in the league, and the fact that they have the best player in the league will keep the weight of carrying the team offensively off Ariza’s shoulders.
14. Andris Biedrins- C, Latvia; PAR Rating: 3.29
Biedrins is a lot like Anderson Varejao in that he likely will never develop into a great scorer, but will pick up a lot of the dirty work. Biedrins began playing professional basketball in Latvia at age 16, and after struggling early on, has established himself as one of FIBA Euro League’s best young big men. The past two seasons he’s put up a solid 18 PPG and 8.5 RPG along with nearly 2 swats a game. He’s already proven to be a great rebounder for an 18-year-old, and has deceptive athleticism for someone his size.
Although he’s showed he could score against big men in the Euroleague, it will likely be a different story once he starts playing against the much more athletic post players of TMBSL. At still only 18 years old, though, Biedrins provides good reason to believe that he can develop into a very effective big man, and the fact that he already plays solid defense at such a young age is likely to carry over into the States. While his average post game will likely make him a middle-late first round pick, I wouldn’t blame a lottery GM whatsoever in reaching to grab this potential-filled foreigner.
Where he’d fit best: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs are razor thin in the frontcourt and are in dire need of someone to go along with elite PF Elton Brand after Antonio Davis’ days in Cleveland are numbered. Pairing Biedrins with Brand could give the Cavs one of the scariest frontcourts in the league moving forward, and assuming one of Tony Battie or James Lang moves to PF, would provide them with some much-needed depth for the long-term. Brand’s great post game will allow the Cavs to play Biedrins big minutes without being too hindered by his lack of an efficient post game, and the duo would own the boards like few other tandems in TMBSL.
13. Josh Childress- SF, Stanford; PAR Rating: 3.31
Childress is another player whose destiny as a professional basketball player lies in how good he wants to become. He has developed his game very nicely while at Stanford, and saw his FG% leap from 43% to 49% between his sophomore and junior seasons. What’s even more compelling is that he managed to increase his PPG totals over a point and a half per game (14.1 to 15.7) while playing almost 5 less minutes per game as a junior. He has also developed a fairly consistent, but not great, three-point shot, connecting on nearly 40% of his attempts from beyond the arc last season. However, he will need to put in a great deal of work to be able to hit that mark in the pros, but if you look at his career trends it appears that the work ethic to do so is there.
Defensively, Childress needs to add some weight, as he tends to get pushed around by bigger opponents, but he has the frame to add a good amount without having too much of an adverse effect on his quickness. Childress is someone who can give you over a steal and a block per game, and depending on how he develops physically, could become one of the best shot blocking SFs in the league. Childress is also an exceptional rebounder for a SF, averaging almost 8 RPG in his career for the Cardinal. He has good athleticism for his size, and if he’s able to put it all together and continue to grow in all phases of his game, he could be one of the 5 best prospects in this draft.
Where he’d fit best: Detroit Pistons
The Pistons will be on the edge of the lottery this year and could use some help at SF. Juwan Howard is getting to be past his prime, and Maurice Taylor has been disappointing for perhaps the league’s most disappointing team this year. Adding Childress would give the Pistons some depth on the wings, and his athleticism will allow him to move to SG if need be for when AI runs the point. The Pistons have some of the biggest decisions to make regarding their franchise outside of the draft this offseason, but I think adding Childress here with the Nuggets’ pick would benefit their team. In all honesty, Childress went here by default, as he didn’t appear to be a perfect fit for anyone that will be drafting around the time he’ll be taken.
12. Kirk Snyder- SG, Nevada; PAR Rating: 3.33
Snyder, whom I consider to be the biggest sleeper of this draft, could possibly end up being the best wing player this class has to offer. After leading his Nevada squad to a Sweet 16 birth, Snyder has gotten the attention of plenty of TMBSL scouts, and has emerged from the depths of the unknown to a potential lottery selection. Although he’s improved his game in each of his 3 seasons at Nevada, he has yet to become efficient from the floor, connecting on only 43% of his field goal attempts in his junior season. However, with a sub-par supporting cast, Snyder was often forced to shoulder most of the offensive load for the Wolfpack, which caused him to force it at times offensively. He has great ability to score around the basket, and with his evolving outside game, Snyder has the potential to develop into a great offensive players in all phases.
Defensively, its tough to get a grip exactly on how good Snyder currently is. In college, he played against inferior talent, which may have made him appear better than he really was, but his size suggests that he could end up becoming an upper-tier defender. At 6’7’’ and almost 230 pounds, Snyder possesses the proper size to defend both wing positions, an advantage that makes him particularly intriguing to scouts. Despite seemingly having all the tools necessary to excel at the next level, scouts are concerned about the lack of competition he faced in college and are worried about whether or not his game will translate when playing against a much higher level of skill in TMBSL.
Where he’d fit best: Phoenix Suns
With only one true SG on the roster, the Suns could definitely use some depth at the position, and Snyder would be able to come in and immediately contribute on the young Suns squad. Phoenix is not far away from being amongst the West’s elite, and bringing in a guy like Snyder that has an NBA-ready body and has spent a few years in college developing his game would be a great way for them to continue improving for the future. The Suns have shown a knack for finding guys that are able to come in and and immediately help their team, and landing Snyder would allow them to continue to do so.
11. Sebastian Telfair- PG, Lincoln (NY); PAR Rating: 3.36
No prospect in this draft has built up as much hype as Sebastian Telfair throughout his prep career. Telfair is currently committed to Rick Pitino and the University of Lousiville, but most expect him to skip college and enter the draft this year. Bassy’s game is full of flare, and he has great court vision for an 18-year-old. Although he has been a good scorer in high school, many scouts question whether or not he’ll be able to finish around the rim consistently against point guards who will mostly be 3 or 4 inches taller than he is. As a result, his stock is not nearly as high as it would be if he were 6’3’’ rather than 6’ flat.
His size is also a limiting factor in regards to his defense. The much bigger, more physical TMBSL point guards will likely overpower him, which causes major concern. He has enough quickness to wreak a lot of havoc by causing turnovers on the defensive end, but the fact of the matter is that his size will greatly impede upon his potential as a defender. Still, Bassy should be a lottery selection, as his court vision and ability to distribute the ball is very rarely seen in prospects his age. He has the potential to develop into one of the better pure point guards in the league, and if he works on his shot from the outside, he could very well be the best point guard in this draft.
Where he’d fit best: Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are currently starting Stephen Jackson way out of position at PG. While he was decent at distributing the ball this year, it was clear to see that he would be much better suited as a SG. Therefore, if the Sixers were able to bring in Bassy, they’d be able to move Jackson back to his natural position, and in doing so I believe would once again become a contender in the East. With one of the best duos in the league in Grant Hill and Antonio McDyess, there’s no reason the Sixers should be missing out on the playoffs, and if they can get some help at point guard, they should improve immensely from this year’s disappointment. Bassy landing on a team like the Sixers would allow him to not have to take on much of the scoring load, and he would thrive in the open court being able to feed Hill and McDyess.
Looking back at the 2002 draft, it was obvious to me that the PAR system needed some tweaking. As you’ll see below, I have corrected for the fact that certain grades simply don’t matter as much to a prospect of a certain position. In my last column, I had Amare Stoudemire as the 11th best prospect overall according to the PAR ratings. After re-crunching the numbers into the new system, however, Amare jumped up to #2 overall. This provides a much more realistic position, given that he’s shot better than 50% and averaged over 20 points and 7 rebounds in his career thus far, and he still isn’t able to buy you a drank. For comparison’s sake, I recalculated the PAR ratings for all 15 prospects that were available at the time I wrote the last article, and their new rank, PAR rating, and previous rank are listed below. Please note that Mike Dunleavey and Carlos Boozer were omitted in the recalculations because they didn’t end up declaring for the 2002 draft.
New Rank—Player—New PAR Rating—(Old Rank)
1. Yao Ming—3.53—(3)
2. Amare Stoudemire—3.47—(11)
3. Caron Butler—3.47—(1)
4. Manu Ginobili—3.44—(2)
5. Drew Gooden—3.42—(6)
6. Dajuan Wagner—3.39—(9)
7. Jason Williams—3.36—(4)
8. Carmelo Anthony—3.31—(5)
9. Kareem Rush—3.25—(7)
10. Fred Jones—3.25—(13)
11. Jared Jefferies—3.19—(8)
12. Nene Hilario—3.06—(14)
13. Tayshaun Prince—3.06—(12)
Looking at the new ratings and comparing them to how well the players have actually become provides good reason to believe that the new system is much more efficient than its predecessor. However, a couple kinks still exist, with which I consider to be the major one discussed below.
The primary downfall of the PAR rating system has to do with potential ratings. The fact that GMs cannot see true potential—or any true grades for that matter—leaves us and me at a distinct disadvantage for scouting and grading prospects. Of course, what would be the fun of the league if we could see exactly how good each and every prospect is? The uncertainty of players’ abilities is a large part of what makes this league so entertaining. Regardless, this fact leaves major flaws in my ability to devise a system that is completely accurate. As mentioned, this burden is most significant in potential ratings. For example, if you look at the 2002 draft profiles, you’ll see that both Carmelo Anthony and Drew Gooden have ‘A’ potential grades. Anthony, who was 18 at the time of the 2002 draft, has since increased his outside scoring up one level (C+ to B-) and his defense up 3 levels (C+ to B+). On the other hand, Gooden, who was 21 at draft time, has only increased his defense up one level (C+ to B-), and has seen his scoring drop a level (B- to C+). On top of that, Gooden, who is 3 years Anthony’s elder, has dropped in potential from an ‘A’ to a ‘B’, while the 20-year-old Anthony still boasts an ‘A’ potential.
While it would be easy to assume that an 18 year old has a higher potential rating than a 19 year old, the fact is that the gray area presented to us by the scouted vs. true potential ratings leaves us completely in the dark. It is just as likely that a player declaring straight out of high school has almost no chance to improve and succeed in the league as there is that a player with a few years playing college ball has the chance to get exponentially better as his career progresses. Therefore, although it is likely that younger players have higher potential ratings, to make these types of assumptions based on age wouldn’t be acceptable, as we will never know for sure the true potential ratings for any prospects.
Without further adieu, let’s get to the PAR ratings for the 2004 draft class. This year, after being satisfied with how the rankings came out, I decided to do a top 20 list rather than 13. In this article I will list 11-20 in reverse order, and I’ll do the top 10 on the road tomorrow, and will hopefully have the second article up by tomorrow evening.
20. Dorell Wright- SG/SF, South Kent Prep (CT); PAR Rating: 3.03
Wright is an explosive athlete with tons of upside. Although he doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, he possesses an all-around game that gives him the potential to eventually develop into a very solid NBA player. Wright could definitely use help on his outside jumper, but his nearly 30 PPG in high school shows that he has a knack for scoring the basketball, despite a sub-par jumpshot.
Although he could use some major work on his lateral quickness, the fact that he averaged 14 RPG along with nearly 5 blocks in high school provides intrigue into the effort he gives on the defensive side of the ball. At 6’8’’, he’s going to need to add 20 pounds of muscle to his frame in order to be able to cut it against the great athletes found in TMBSL, but if he can do that while adding the issues with his quickness, he could develop into an elite defensive small forward. Regardless, whoever drafts him should not expect much from him right away, because Wright is a major project.
Where he’d fit best: Sacramento Kings
The Kings are struggling trying to get decent minutes out of their SG position. Although Joseph Forte was decent for them before getting injured, there are still major question marks as to whether or not he can cut it as a full-time TMBSL SG. If the Kings were to bring in Wright, a hybrid SG/SF, he would be able to give them some versatility in their lineup while playing alongside Tayshaun Prince, a hybrid SF/PF. In addition, it would give them some much needed depth and athleticism on the wing, as Carlos Delfino and Casey Jacobsen have disappointed in Sacramento thus far.
19. Kris Humphries- PF, Minnesota; PAR Rating: 3.11
After deciding to spurn both TMBSL and Duke coming out of high school, Humphries ended up attending home state school Minnesota for a year. Although the Gophers had a brutal season, Humphries managed to average 22 PPG and 10 RPG, both tops in the big 10. Humphries has a well-developed all-around game, and has shown to be a good scorer with his back to the basket, as well as an above-average rebounder and defender. However, putting up huge numbers in the Big 10 is a much different animal than TMBSL, and uncertainty exists as to whether Humphries possesses the athleticism and strength necessary to be a successful player in the league.
While Humphries did dominate the Big 10 to TMBSL scouts’ liking last year, major red flags arose throughout the year, as Humphries was often times accused of being a selfish player. There was criticism that Humphries played only to benefit his stats, so as to get a better standing amongst other TMBSL prospects for the upcoming draft. However, his numbers still don’t lie, and Humphries could end up being a late lottery selection, and should develop into a consistent big man.
Where he’d fit best: Washington Bullzards
The Bullzards have struggled with finding their main guy at the PF position, as neither Samaki Walker nor Jerome Williams have given them any reason to be excited about their big man complement to the best center in the game, Shaquille O”Neal. In addition, there is little chance that the Bullzards re-sign both of their PFs, as both their deals expire within the next two years, so getting a young big man to fill that future void is crucial. As Shaq continues to age, it is likely that Nenad Kristic eventually becomes their center of the future, and Humphries and Kristic would give them a nice young core of big men once Shaq does finally decide to hang them up. On second thought, they’re both white, so maybe not.
18. JR Smith- SG, St. Benedicts Prep (NJ); PAR Rating: 3.14
JR Smith is an extremely gifted athlete with a world-class vertical. He will be among the elite dunkers of TMBSL as soon as he gets drafted. In addition, Smith has unlimited range with his jumpshot, and will be someone who can definitely hit TMBSL three pointers with consistency. Unfortunately, although Earl possesses all the physical tools necessary to be an all star caliber player, whether or not he’ll ever put it together mentally is a completely different story. He’s been known to be a ball hog, and his shot selection at times leaves people wondering what the hell he’s thinking with the ball in his hands.
Earl’s mental lapses are even more noticeable on the defensive side of the court. It is expected that someone with his level of athleticism should be able to be a great defensive player, but that is far from the case. To put it bluntly, Smith does not give a fuck about defense. In order for Smith to ever tap into his potential in TMBSL, he’s going to have to completely change the way he approaches the game, because as much talent as he displays on offense, his athleticism suggests that he could be an even better defender. Whether or not he has the drive to become a great defensive player will likely hinge on who coaches him and, more importantly, how he matures. If he does, though, he could become a perennial TMBSL all star. Thus, Smith’s combination of incredible talent and mental immaturity make him perhaps this year’s biggest boom-or-bust pick.
Where he’d fit best: Seattle Supersonics
The Sonics only have one true shooting guard on their roster, and if they were to add Smith they’d have a perfect fit for their up-tempo brand of basketball. In addition, they already have an established SG in Kerry Kittles, who is a seasoned veteran and would give Smith the opportunity to come off the bench and provide a spark for a couple of years until he’s ready to be a full-time starter. In addition, the Sonics don’t exactly love to play hard-nosed defense (they allow almost 102 PPG), but still have a great chance at making TMBSL Finals this year, and if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. However, getting into a run-and-gun type of system seen in Seattle may end up being Smith’s kryptonite, as he’s probably better off playing for a coach that can light a fire under his ass and force him to take defense seriously.
17. Kevin Martin- SG, Western Carolina; PAR Rating: 3.19
Martin comes into TMBSL an accomplished collegiate scorer, averaging nearly 25 points a game for the Western Carolina in his junior season. Martin has shown the ability to score in a number of ways, and there aren’t many players in this draft who can measure up to Martin’s offensive arsenal. However, scouts have questioned whether or not Martin will be able to get his jumper off against bigger defenders in TMBSL, as he has a Shawn Marion-like release from his sternum. Regardless, his jumpshot is still above average, and if he can figure out how to get it off, he should be able to adjust to the extended three-point line and be a great outside shooter. Martin is also relentless at taking the ball to the rack, which allows him to get to the free throw line several times a game, where he shot 84% in his college career. Because of his hard-nosed approach in taking the ball to the rim, however, Martin takes a lot of abuse from bigger defenders, which at a rail-thin 185 pounds, could be a cause for concern, as the larger athletes in TMBSL will make Martin pay when driving the lane.
Martin is also not by any means a great defender. As mentioned, he’s extremely thin for being 6’7’’, and will likely get abused by bigger, stronger guards. In addition, he doesn’t have great foot speed and tends to get beat off the dribble more than scouts would like to see. Scouts are also worried about the level of competition Martin faced while playing for Western Carolina. Even with a questionable physical build and lackluster defense, Martin could end up a lottery selection, as his uncanny ability to get to the hoop and expanding outside game will be very attractive to league GMs.
Where he’d fit best: New York Knicks
The Knicks have given the majority of their minutes at SG to Matt Barnes. While Barnes has been decent, the Knicks could definitely use an upgrade at the position, which Martin could certainly provide. If Martin were to go to the Knicks and become a legitimate starter, his lack of defensive prowess would be able to be masked to an extent, as the Knicks have three great defensive wing players in Barnes, LeBron James, and Richard Jefferson to shoulder the defensive burden.
16. Anderson Varejao- PF/C, Brazil; PAR Rating: 3.21
Likely a sleeper in this year’s draft, Varejao possesses a unique blend of athleticism and size that you simply can’t teach. Varejao has spent the past few seasons playing in Spain for FC Barcelona, where he hasn’t been great, but has certainly contributed, helping Barcelona win their first Euroleague Championship in 2003. Despite having already played 3 seasons of professional basketball, Varejao is still only 21 years old, and has room to add weight onto his frame and become a great defensive low post presence.
Varejao is not a prospect that will ever put up great scoring numbers, but what he will provide the team that drafts him are the intangibles that are immeasurable on a stat sheet. He gives full effort on the court every night, and a motor like his blended with his athleticism is something that can be an asset to every TMBSL team. Therefore, if you’re looking for a guy to come off the bench and provide great defense and a ton of energy, this is your guy. His hair is fucking gay, though.
Where he’d fit best: Utah Jazz
Utah is a team predicated on great team defense and unselfishness on the offensive end, and that’s exactly what Varejao brings to the table. All 3 of the Jazz’s centers have expiring contracts this year, and given Varejao’s versatility with regards to his position, they could bring him in to pick up the minutes left by one of their centers, should they choose not to re-sign all 3. In addition, if Varejao shows he isn’t able to successfully guard bigger TMBSL centers, sim-Raef has the ability to man the 5 spot while Lorenzen Wright is on the bench, giving them a number of options as to how they want to fill their frontcourt minutes.
15. Trevor Ariza- SF, UCLA; PAR Rating: 3.25
Like JR Smith, Ariza is oozing with athleticism and potential. While Ariza’s outside game might not be as far developed as Smith’s, he gives a much better effort on the defensive end and appears to have a much better work ethic. In his lone year at UCLA, Ariza didn’t put up overly impressive stats, but showed flashes of what he could become and has the type of game that usually translates well to the pros. He will need to put in a lot of work in order to improve upon his less than 24% shooting from the three-point arc, but at 19 years young he has plenty of time to do so.
Ariza excelled on the defensive side of the ball at UCLA, and was amongst the Pac 10’s leading steal men last season. He has a solid TMBSL body at 6’7’’ and nearly 200 pounds, but definitely has some room to fill out and become an even stronger defender. As someone who could very well slip into the latter part of the first round, Ariza has a chance to be a major steal for a contender with a late round pick looking to add some defensive depth off the bench.
Where he’d fit best: Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have the best player in TMBSL in Kobe Bryant, but besides him the Canadas are very thin on the wings. George Lynch has been a disaster at the SF spot this season, so if Ariza landed here he could potentially come in and start from day one. In addition, playing alongside someone like Kobefag Bryant, who works harder on his game than anyone else in the league, would give Ariza a good role model to look up to as he tries to expand his offensive game and become a complete player. Landing Ariza would also help keep the Raptors among the most elite defensive teams in the league, and the fact that they have the best player in the league will keep the weight of carrying the team offensively off Ariza’s shoulders.
14. Andris Biedrins- C, Latvia; PAR Rating: 3.29
Biedrins is a lot like Anderson Varejao in that he likely will never develop into a great scorer, but will pick up a lot of the dirty work. Biedrins began playing professional basketball in Latvia at age 16, and after struggling early on, has established himself as one of FIBA Euro League’s best young big men. The past two seasons he’s put up a solid 18 PPG and 8.5 RPG along with nearly 2 swats a game. He’s already proven to be a great rebounder for an 18-year-old, and has deceptive athleticism for someone his size.
Although he’s showed he could score against big men in the Euroleague, it will likely be a different story once he starts playing against the much more athletic post players of TMBSL. At still only 18 years old, though, Biedrins provides good reason to believe that he can develop into a very effective big man, and the fact that he already plays solid defense at such a young age is likely to carry over into the States. While his average post game will likely make him a middle-late first round pick, I wouldn’t blame a lottery GM whatsoever in reaching to grab this potential-filled foreigner.
Where he’d fit best: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs are razor thin in the frontcourt and are in dire need of someone to go along with elite PF Elton Brand after Antonio Davis’ days in Cleveland are numbered. Pairing Biedrins with Brand could give the Cavs one of the scariest frontcourts in the league moving forward, and assuming one of Tony Battie or James Lang moves to PF, would provide them with some much-needed depth for the long-term. Brand’s great post game will allow the Cavs to play Biedrins big minutes without being too hindered by his lack of an efficient post game, and the duo would own the boards like few other tandems in TMBSL.
13. Josh Childress- SF, Stanford; PAR Rating: 3.31
Childress is another player whose destiny as a professional basketball player lies in how good he wants to become. He has developed his game very nicely while at Stanford, and saw his FG% leap from 43% to 49% between his sophomore and junior seasons. What’s even more compelling is that he managed to increase his PPG totals over a point and a half per game (14.1 to 15.7) while playing almost 5 less minutes per game as a junior. He has also developed a fairly consistent, but not great, three-point shot, connecting on nearly 40% of his attempts from beyond the arc last season. However, he will need to put in a great deal of work to be able to hit that mark in the pros, but if you look at his career trends it appears that the work ethic to do so is there.
Defensively, Childress needs to add some weight, as he tends to get pushed around by bigger opponents, but he has the frame to add a good amount without having too much of an adverse effect on his quickness. Childress is someone who can give you over a steal and a block per game, and depending on how he develops physically, could become one of the best shot blocking SFs in the league. Childress is also an exceptional rebounder for a SF, averaging almost 8 RPG in his career for the Cardinal. He has good athleticism for his size, and if he’s able to put it all together and continue to grow in all phases of his game, he could be one of the 5 best prospects in this draft.
Where he’d fit best: Detroit Pistons
The Pistons will be on the edge of the lottery this year and could use some help at SF. Juwan Howard is getting to be past his prime, and Maurice Taylor has been disappointing for perhaps the league’s most disappointing team this year. Adding Childress would give the Pistons some depth on the wings, and his athleticism will allow him to move to SG if need be for when AI runs the point. The Pistons have some of the biggest decisions to make regarding their franchise outside of the draft this offseason, but I think adding Childress here with the Nuggets’ pick would benefit their team. In all honesty, Childress went here by default, as he didn’t appear to be a perfect fit for anyone that will be drafting around the time he’ll be taken.
12. Kirk Snyder- SG, Nevada; PAR Rating: 3.33
Snyder, whom I consider to be the biggest sleeper of this draft, could possibly end up being the best wing player this class has to offer. After leading his Nevada squad to a Sweet 16 birth, Snyder has gotten the attention of plenty of TMBSL scouts, and has emerged from the depths of the unknown to a potential lottery selection. Although he’s improved his game in each of his 3 seasons at Nevada, he has yet to become efficient from the floor, connecting on only 43% of his field goal attempts in his junior season. However, with a sub-par supporting cast, Snyder was often forced to shoulder most of the offensive load for the Wolfpack, which caused him to force it at times offensively. He has great ability to score around the basket, and with his evolving outside game, Snyder has the potential to develop into a great offensive players in all phases.
Defensively, its tough to get a grip exactly on how good Snyder currently is. In college, he played against inferior talent, which may have made him appear better than he really was, but his size suggests that he could end up becoming an upper-tier defender. At 6’7’’ and almost 230 pounds, Snyder possesses the proper size to defend both wing positions, an advantage that makes him particularly intriguing to scouts. Despite seemingly having all the tools necessary to excel at the next level, scouts are concerned about the lack of competition he faced in college and are worried about whether or not his game will translate when playing against a much higher level of skill in TMBSL.
Where he’d fit best: Phoenix Suns
With only one true SG on the roster, the Suns could definitely use some depth at the position, and Snyder would be able to come in and immediately contribute on the young Suns squad. Phoenix is not far away from being amongst the West’s elite, and bringing in a guy like Snyder that has an NBA-ready body and has spent a few years in college developing his game would be a great way for them to continue improving for the future. The Suns have shown a knack for finding guys that are able to come in and and immediately help their team, and landing Snyder would allow them to continue to do so.
11. Sebastian Telfair- PG, Lincoln (NY); PAR Rating: 3.36
No prospect in this draft has built up as much hype as Sebastian Telfair throughout his prep career. Telfair is currently committed to Rick Pitino and the University of Lousiville, but most expect him to skip college and enter the draft this year. Bassy’s game is full of flare, and he has great court vision for an 18-year-old. Although he has been a good scorer in high school, many scouts question whether or not he’ll be able to finish around the rim consistently against point guards who will mostly be 3 or 4 inches taller than he is. As a result, his stock is not nearly as high as it would be if he were 6’3’’ rather than 6’ flat.
His size is also a limiting factor in regards to his defense. The much bigger, more physical TMBSL point guards will likely overpower him, which causes major concern. He has enough quickness to wreak a lot of havoc by causing turnovers on the defensive end, but the fact of the matter is that his size will greatly impede upon his potential as a defender. Still, Bassy should be a lottery selection, as his court vision and ability to distribute the ball is very rarely seen in prospects his age. He has the potential to develop into one of the better pure point guards in the league, and if he works on his shot from the outside, he could very well be the best point guard in this draft.
Where he’d fit best: Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are currently starting Stephen Jackson way out of position at PG. While he was decent at distributing the ball this year, it was clear to see that he would be much better suited as a SG. Therefore, if the Sixers were able to bring in Bassy, they’d be able to move Jackson back to his natural position, and in doing so I believe would once again become a contender in the East. With one of the best duos in the league in Grant Hill and Antonio McDyess, there’s no reason the Sixers should be missing out on the playoffs, and if they can get some help at point guard, they should improve immensely from this year’s disappointment. Bassy landing on a team like the Sixers would allow him to not have to take on much of the scoring load, and he would thrive in the open court being able to feed Hill and McDyess.
