Post by 20/20/20/20 on Oct 1, 2010 14:57:44 GMT -5
With the 2002 1st rounders entering the final year of their original rookie contracts, I'm going to take a look back at each pick in the draft, what type of role they are currently playing, what type of impact they have made on the league, and what the future holds for them.
1. Yao Ming C 7'6'' 310 22
Then:
B+ C C B- B- B
Now:
A- C C+ B B B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
37.9 24.9 10.0 4.8 0.7 0.9 2.8 .509 .726 .353
Yao has been one of the crown jewels of the 2002 class, playing a major role on the Nets in each of his 4 seasons. Yao's first two seasons he led the Nets to the playoffs, but they were bounced in the first round both times in the loaded East. The Nets GM made the decision that their team would not contend in the East at that time and the last two years Yao has been stuck on a rebuilding Nets team. Yao has been improving his game, though. Last season was his finest, averaging 26.3 points, 10.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game. Through all his improvement, Yao has still maintained the B scouted potential he was drafted with. Yao's major disappointment has been his defense, especially shot blocking. He only averages 0.9 blocks per game for his career, which is definitely underwhelming for any center in this league, let alone the #1 overall pick.
2006 Contract Prediction: MAX contract recipient, likely back with the Nets
2. Carmelo Anthony SF 6'8'' 225 18
Then:
B- C+ C C+ C+ A
Now:
B B C A B A
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
34.9 21.8 7.9 3.4 1.4 0.3 2.8 .477 .667 .333
A controversial #2 pick at the time, Carmelo has made incredible strides in his game, and still maintains his A scouted potential. Stuck on the former basement dwelling Pacers, Melo has never experienced playing for a winning team. So far this year, the Carmelo-led upstart Pacers are 12-11 and sitting in the 8th seed in the East. If this success continues, it could be integral in keeping Anthony in Indy, as he has a pretty strong desire to play for a winner. When Anthony was drafted as an 18 year old, he was obviously a project, but his last two seasons he has shown that he is blossoming into a star. After averaging a career high 18 and 7 last season, he is on pace for 22 and 8 in 2005. The scary part is that he still has room to grow. Where will he Anthony play the prime of his career?
2006 Contract Prediction: MAX Contract, Indiana Pacers
3. Amar'e Stoudemire PF 6'11'' 240 18
Then:
A- D+ C- C- C A
Now:
A D+ C B+ B A
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
31.6 19.1 7.7 1.9 0.8 1.1 2.0 .545 .511 .000
Entering the league in 2002, everyone knew Amare would score the ball. He averaged 23 points a game as a rookie, living up to the hype. The question was how his defense and rebounding would develop, as those skills were lacking at the time of the draft. 4 years later, we have our answer. Stoudemire's improvement has been amazing, and he still has A scouted potential, a theme with the top picks of the 2002 draft. Now playing on a deep Suns team with 6 guys averaging 10+ PPG, Amare leads the team with 19 points per game. The Suns are currently atop the crowded West, but they could be out of the playoffs in a week. Amare has turned into the best player from the 2002 class. He is a pretty loyal guy, but he also knows that he needs to cash in on this payday so he will be looking to get the most money he can get. Will Phoenix have enough cash to give him what he wants? The high spending Suns are dangerously close to the hard cap.
2006 Contract Prediction: MAX contract, Orlando Magic
4. Jay Williams PG 6'2'' 195 22
Then:
B- C B- C+ C A
Now:
B B- B A- C B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
33.9 20.7 5.2 7.6 2.2 0.3 2.4 .481 .742 .438
The highest guy in the draft to be traded, Williams has swapped teams twice: first to Chicago in exchange for Allen Iverson, and most recently to Atlanta in a deal for Al Horford. Williams has made himself at home quickly in the ATL, leading the Hawks to a surprising 15-4 start, good enough for the 2nd seed in the East. A 21 point per game scorer, Jay has developed his offensive and defensive game to new heights. The only thing left for Williams to enter the league's PG elite is to improve his handling and increase his assists while decreasing his turnovers.
2006 Contract Prediction: Approx. 10 mil per season to stay in Atlanta... if he asks for the MAX, he could be on the market as the Hawks have Nate Robinson waiting in the wings and have shown they have no problem letting their guys walk in the past
5. Nene PF 6'11'' 250 19
Then:
C+ D+ C- C+ B A
Now:
B- D+ D+ B A B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
28.1 8.4 8.8 1.4 0.8 0.5 1.5 .457 .500 .000
Like Jay Williams, Nene has been traded twice as well. Originally drafted by the Suns, Nene spent one night as a Portland Trailblazer before being moved to Chicago. Nene has found a home with the Bulls, developing into an elite rebounder and solid defender. As it was expected when he was drafted, Nene is not a big factor offensively. His potential has dropped to a B, but if he can improve his defense or offense, he will be an attractive option come free agency.
2006 Contract Prediction: 8-9 mil per year, Cleveland Cavaliers
6. Dajuan Wagner PG 6'3'' 200 19
Then:
C+ B+ C- C C- A
Now:
B- A+ C- C C- B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
33.9 20.6 5.4 2.7 1.4 0.2 2.7 .457 .857 .369
Wagner has developed into one of the league's premier outside scorers, sporting an unheard of A+ outside scoring rating. His 3 pt percentage hasn't lived up to that rating, but he does score over 20 points per game. While his offensive game has developed nicely, he still is very weak defensively and doesn't bring anything else to the table other than his points. He hasn't been able to lead the Grizzlies to the playoffs, either. I have a feeling his gaudy offensive numbers are going to end up netting this former #6 pick more than he is worth on the open market.
2006 Contract Prediction: 10 mil per season, Memphis Grizzlies
7. Manu Ginobili SG 6'6'' 205 23
Then:
C B B- B C B
Now:
C+ A- A- B+ C B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
13.8 5.2 3.5 1.5 0.1 1.1 .473 .896 .542
A big part of the Kevin Garnett deal, Manu is now a member of the Hawks. Ginobili has shown incredible improvement for a guy the scouts only had pegged with B potential. He still has B potential and has already developed into a great player. A good scorer, fantastic ball handler and talented defender, Manu has it all. His skillset seems that it would translate better into the PG role than SG, so his current spot with the Hawks is interesting. Atlanta has two other talented PGs in Jay Williams and Nate Robinson, so it will be interesting to see how the Hawks manage their roster moving forward.
2006 Contract Prediction: 7 million per, Atlanta Hawks
8. Drew Gooden PF 6'10'' 230 21
Then:
B- C- C- C+ B A
Now:
C+ C- C- B B C
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
5.0 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 .500 .500 .000
Bust. Not much you can say about Gooden. He has actually regressed as a scorer, maintained his rebounding ability, and shown slight improvement as a defender. It still isn't enough to get him on the floor, as he has only played in 3 games for the Blazers this year. He is definitely the highest profile bust from the 2002 class.
2006 Contract Prediction: Vet min contract after free agency
9. Caron Butler SF 6'7'' 220 20
Then:
B- C+ C C+ C+ A
Now:
B B- C+ B C+ C
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
38.1 22.7 6.6 2.4 1.4 0.2 2.1 .504 .627 .449
Caron has had limited improvement from his initial grades, but he has worked himself into an above average player. His further development is likely limited due to his C potential, but you would have to say he has been a successful draft pick. Butler has always put up impressive stats, averaging 18 points per game so far in his career, scoring over 20 ppg in 3 of his 4 seasons in the league. It is up for debate whether Caron's numbers are indicative of his ability as a player or simply a matter of opportunity as he has always been a top scoring option on young teams without a go to scorer. Due to this question, it is hard to project how much money he will get this offseason.
2006 Contract Prediction: 6 mil per year, Chicago Bulls
10. Jared Jeffries SF 6'11'' 240 20
Then:
B- C C C+ C+ A
Now:
B- C C B- C+ A
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
17.6 3.3 3.7 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 .313 .680 .286
The 3rd of the Suns top 10 picks in 2002, Jeffries has been the least successful by far. He could be described as a late bloomer, considering he still has A potential, but you have to be wondering if he will ever cash in on any of that potential? He has seen a slight uptick in his defensive ability, but otherwise is identical to the player he was coming out of school. Jared's claim to fame is his chronic terrible shooting, a 40% shooter for his career is shooting only 31% so far this year.
2006 Contract Prediction: A multiyear deal worth about 2 mil per season from a team hoping he breaks out due to his potential
11. Tayshaun Prince SF 6'9'' 215 22
Then: B- C C+ B- C+ B
Now: B C+ C+ A- C+ B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
33.4 13.1 6.3 2.5 1.1 0.3 1.2 .478 .667 .414
The highest 2002 draftee to have a championship ring, you would have to consider Tayshaun a successful pick for the Kings. Prince has played a major role in all of his seasons on the Kings, helping Sacramento win the 2004 TMBSL Title over the Charlotte Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets. While he hasn't seen overwhelming improvements, he has developed near elite defense and become a solid scorer as well. Prince still has room to grow, but he looks like he has settled into his niche as the 3rd or 4th best player on a championship caliber team.
2006 Contract Prediction: 6.5 million per year with the Kings
12. Luis Scola PF 6'9'' 248 20
Then:
C+ C C- C C A
Now:
C+ C D+ C+ C+ C
2005 Stats:
Has not played in any games.
I wasn't even sure what team Scola was on. That should tell you how much of a bust he has been. In fact, if rookie contracts weren't 4 years, I don't think he would be on a team. He hasn't improved anything and probably wasn't worthy of being drafted 12th overall in the first place by the old Sixers GM.
2006 Contract Prediction: Unsigned, Unrostered... not even the Fighting Kahns want this guy
13. Nikoloz Tskitishvili PF 7'0'' 245 19
Then:
C C+ C C B A
Now:
C+ C+ C C A- B
2005 Stats:
Has not played in any games.
Picked based on his developed rebounding and outstanding potential, Skita hasn't improved much outside of his rebounding. Due to only having one plus skill, he hasn't found his way onto the court for the star studded Knicks. If Nikoloz can improve some other facets of his game, he may find his role on a team in the future. If he doesn't improve anywhere else, I'm not sure his elite rebounding gets him on a team.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum contract, Minnesota Fighting Kahns
14. Kareem Rush SG 6'6'' 215 21
Then:
C+ B C C C A
Now:
C+ A- C+ B- C+ B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
10.0 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 .410 .889 .333
Kareem has improved a lot since being drafted and has made an impact in the league, but now has been limited to a bench role with the Nets where he sees only 10 minutes per game. His first 3 seasons he averaged around 11 points and 7 rebounds per contest. Kareem has probably settled into the role he will hold in the future as a role player off the bench. He is a very capable backup and should get a couple million from someone this offseason to come off the bench.
2006 Contract Prediction: 2 million per year
15. Qyntel Woods SF 6'8'' 220 20
Then:
C+ C+ C C C A
Now:
C+ B- C C+ C- C
2005 Stats:
Has not played.
Bust. Showed promise early but never captured any of the potential he had. Disappointment for sure. Will be lucky to get signed.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum from Minnesota T-Wolves
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16. Fred Jones SG 6'2'' 220 22
Then:
B C+ C C C A
Now:
B+ A- C+ B+ C C
Jones has developed into a very nice player by putting his A potential to use. Always stuck behind better players on the talented Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets, Jones is getting his first chance for starters minutes this year and is trying to make the most of his opportunity. He is averaging over 15 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals per game, but is shooting a disappointing 41% thus far. If Jones can step up his play and lead the Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets to a successful year, he has a chance to cash in this offseason. Compared to the players taken around him, Fred Jones definitely has to be considered a steal.
2006 Contract Prediction: 6 million per year from the Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets
17. Juan Dixon SG 6'3'' 195 22
Then:
C B C C+ C B
Now:
C B+ C B- C C
2005 Stats:
Has not played.
Dixon developed a little bit but has never been more than a backup. His future lies as an end of the roster depth guy.
2006 Contract Predicton: Minimum Contract, Minnesota Fighting Kahns
18. Ryan Humphrey PF 6'8'' 235 23
Then:
B- D C- B- C+ B
Now:
B+ D C B+ B- B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
30.4 15.7 9.2 2.9 0.5 3.4 1.7 .458 .585 .000
Humphrey is certainly the biggest steal of the draft. Ryan came into the league and produced right away. One of the league's premier shotblockers, Humphrey is averaging 3.4 per game this year. Humphrey is a two time All Star and averaging close to a double double this season. Best value pick in the draft for sure.
2006 Contract Prediction: 9 million per season, Lakers
19. Chris Wilcox PF 6'10'' 235 20
Then:
C+ D C C+ C A
Now:
B- D C B C+ B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
19.9 3.0 5.1 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.5 .439 .273 .000
Wilcox has developed into a solid bench option for the Rockets and still has some potential to improve. It is unlikely that he will ever develop into anything more than a bench player, but that is still pretty good out of the 19th pick.
2006 Contract Prediction: 2 million per from the Rockets
20. Ronald Murray SG 6'4'' 190 23
Then:
C B B- C C B
Now:
C A- C+ C C C
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
11.2 2.5 2.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.5 .370 1.000 .278
Murray has had some good years for a late 1st round pick, but this year isn't one of them. With his Handling decreased and his potential tapped out, this 3 point specialist shooting 27.8% from 3 might have some trouble finding a job next year. Don't be surprised to see Flip on the bench in Minnesota next year.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum from Minnesota Fighting Kahns
21. Casey Jacobsen SG 6'6'' 215 21
Then:
C B+ C C- D B
Now:
C A- C C- D- C
2005 Stats:
Has not played this season.
Jacobsen got some early playing time for the rebuilding Kings, but without any skills other than his ability to shoot the 3, he hasn't found himself on the court lately. He isn't a bust, but the Kings definitely expected more. At least he has a ring.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum deal from Minnesota Fighting Kahns
22. Curtis Borchardt C 7'0'' 240 21
Then:
C+ D+ C- C+ C+ A
Now:
C+ C- D+ C+ B- B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
18.3 2.3 6.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.0 .286 .286 .000
Borchardt was always right on the cusp of becoming a rotation worthy player, but he never capitalized on opportunity with the Bucks. Now, unless he has a big training camp next year he might find himself without a job.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum deal from Minnesota Fighting Kahns
23. Juan Carlos Navarro PG 6'3'' 170 20
Then:
C C B C C A
Now:
??
2005 Stats:
??
Navarro is a mystery man. I was not able to locate him on the Free Agent list or any team's roster. I may have just missed him, but it looks like he is no longer part of the TMBSL.
24. Melvin Ely PF 6'9'' 240 23
Then:
C+ D C- B B C
Now:
B- D+ D+ A- A C
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
27.0 9.1 10.2 1.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 .418 .593 .000
Ely was a steal of a pick in the 1st by the Sixers. After a great TC where his potential shot up and his ratings did too, he made an immediate impact. He was shipped to the defensively focused Jazz and hasn't looked back. One of the league's best rebounders, Ely has established his identity in the league and will be a mainstay for years to come.
2006 Contract Prediction: 7 million per year from the Jazz
25. John Salmons SG 6'7'' 210 22
Then:
C C+ C+ C+ C B
Now:
C B B- A- C+ A
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
15.1 2.3 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 .444 .750 .286
Salmons can only be described as a major steal. His ratings has flown through the roof and he still has A potential. Even though he has never gotten playing time and has never averaged more than 6 points per game, this is going to be a very sought after player this offseason.
2006 Contract Prediction: 4 mil per year for a mutilyear deal
26. Nenad Kristic PF 6'11'' 210 17
Then:
C C+ C+ C- C- A
Now:
C C+ C B- C B
2005 Stats;
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
4.0 0.8 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 .667 .000 .500
The Wizards have been waiting and waiting for Kristic to develop. They knew they would have to be patient when they selected the 17 year old big man, but it now appears that he will never develop into anything. Another boom or bust late 1st who ended up busting.
27. Roger Mason, JR SG 6'5'' 200 21
Then:
C C+ C C+ C A
Now:
C+ B C C+ C C
2005 Stats:
Has not played this year.
Mason was very similar to the players picked before and after him in Kristic and Welsch and he has suffered a similar fate. Limited improvement, no more potential, and limited skillset. Right now Mason is nothing but a bench guy and that is likely where his future lies.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum with Houston Rockets
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28. Jiri Welsch 6'7'' 205 20
Then:
C+ C+ C+ C C- A
Now:
C+ B- C C C- B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
5.2 2.8 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.4 .556 1.000 1.000
Welsch never developed like the Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets had hoped and he was dealt in a salary dump to the Wizards this offseason. He fits in the Wizards plans well, and he might fit in with the Wolves next season. He has to be considered a bust.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum deal with the Minnesota Fighting Kahns
29. Boston Nachbar SF 6'9'' 220 20
Then:
C C+ C C B- A
Now:
C B C C+ B- C
2005 Stats:
Free agent, has not played.
Nachbar is only 2 of the 29 first round picks who is not currently on a team, fitting for the last pick of the round. Although he does not have the worst ratings of any player, he isn't good enough that he has been picked up either. Has to be considered a bust.
2006 Contract Prediction: Unrostered.
2002 First Round Player Rankings:
1. Amare Stoudemire
2. Yao Ming
3. Carmelo Anthony
4. Ryan Humphrey
5. Jay Williams
6. Melvin Ely
7. Manu Ginobili
8. Nene
9. Tayshaun Prince
10. Fred Jones
11. Caron Butler
12. Dajuan Wagner
13. John Salmons
14. Kareem Rush
15. Jared Jeffries
16. Chris Wilcox
17. Juan Dixon
18. Curtis Borchardt
19. Nikoloz Tskitishvili
20. Drew Gooden
21. Ronald Murray
22. Casey Jacobsen
23. Roger Mason, JR
24. Nenad Kristic
25. Bostjan Nachbar
26. Jiri Welsch
27. Qyntel Woods
28. Luis Scola
29. Juan Carlos Navarro
1. Yao Ming C 7'6'' 310 22
Then:
B+ C C B- B- B
Now:
A- C C+ B B B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
37.9 24.9 10.0 4.8 0.7 0.9 2.8 .509 .726 .353
Yao has been one of the crown jewels of the 2002 class, playing a major role on the Nets in each of his 4 seasons. Yao's first two seasons he led the Nets to the playoffs, but they were bounced in the first round both times in the loaded East. The Nets GM made the decision that their team would not contend in the East at that time and the last two years Yao has been stuck on a rebuilding Nets team. Yao has been improving his game, though. Last season was his finest, averaging 26.3 points, 10.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game. Through all his improvement, Yao has still maintained the B scouted potential he was drafted with. Yao's major disappointment has been his defense, especially shot blocking. He only averages 0.9 blocks per game for his career, which is definitely underwhelming for any center in this league, let alone the #1 overall pick.
2006 Contract Prediction: MAX contract recipient, likely back with the Nets
2. Carmelo Anthony SF 6'8'' 225 18
Then:
B- C+ C C+ C+ A
Now:
B B C A B A
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
34.9 21.8 7.9 3.4 1.4 0.3 2.8 .477 .667 .333
A controversial #2 pick at the time, Carmelo has made incredible strides in his game, and still maintains his A scouted potential. Stuck on the former basement dwelling Pacers, Melo has never experienced playing for a winning team. So far this year, the Carmelo-led upstart Pacers are 12-11 and sitting in the 8th seed in the East. If this success continues, it could be integral in keeping Anthony in Indy, as he has a pretty strong desire to play for a winner. When Anthony was drafted as an 18 year old, he was obviously a project, but his last two seasons he has shown that he is blossoming into a star. After averaging a career high 18 and 7 last season, he is on pace for 22 and 8 in 2005. The scary part is that he still has room to grow. Where will he Anthony play the prime of his career?
2006 Contract Prediction: MAX Contract, Indiana Pacers
3. Amar'e Stoudemire PF 6'11'' 240 18
Then:
A- D+ C- C- C A
Now:
A D+ C B+ B A
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
31.6 19.1 7.7 1.9 0.8 1.1 2.0 .545 .511 .000
Entering the league in 2002, everyone knew Amare would score the ball. He averaged 23 points a game as a rookie, living up to the hype. The question was how his defense and rebounding would develop, as those skills were lacking at the time of the draft. 4 years later, we have our answer. Stoudemire's improvement has been amazing, and he still has A scouted potential, a theme with the top picks of the 2002 draft. Now playing on a deep Suns team with 6 guys averaging 10+ PPG, Amare leads the team with 19 points per game. The Suns are currently atop the crowded West, but they could be out of the playoffs in a week. Amare has turned into the best player from the 2002 class. He is a pretty loyal guy, but he also knows that he needs to cash in on this payday so he will be looking to get the most money he can get. Will Phoenix have enough cash to give him what he wants? The high spending Suns are dangerously close to the hard cap.
2006 Contract Prediction: MAX contract, Orlando Magic
4. Jay Williams PG 6'2'' 195 22
Then:
B- C B- C+ C A
Now:
B B- B A- C B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
33.9 20.7 5.2 7.6 2.2 0.3 2.4 .481 .742 .438
The highest guy in the draft to be traded, Williams has swapped teams twice: first to Chicago in exchange for Allen Iverson, and most recently to Atlanta in a deal for Al Horford. Williams has made himself at home quickly in the ATL, leading the Hawks to a surprising 15-4 start, good enough for the 2nd seed in the East. A 21 point per game scorer, Jay has developed his offensive and defensive game to new heights. The only thing left for Williams to enter the league's PG elite is to improve his handling and increase his assists while decreasing his turnovers.
2006 Contract Prediction: Approx. 10 mil per season to stay in Atlanta... if he asks for the MAX, he could be on the market as the Hawks have Nate Robinson waiting in the wings and have shown they have no problem letting their guys walk in the past
5. Nene PF 6'11'' 250 19
Then:
C+ D+ C- C+ B A
Now:
B- D+ D+ B A B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
28.1 8.4 8.8 1.4 0.8 0.5 1.5 .457 .500 .000
Like Jay Williams, Nene has been traded twice as well. Originally drafted by the Suns, Nene spent one night as a Portland Trailblazer before being moved to Chicago. Nene has found a home with the Bulls, developing into an elite rebounder and solid defender. As it was expected when he was drafted, Nene is not a big factor offensively. His potential has dropped to a B, but if he can improve his defense or offense, he will be an attractive option come free agency.
2006 Contract Prediction: 8-9 mil per year, Cleveland Cavaliers
6. Dajuan Wagner PG 6'3'' 200 19
Then:
C+ B+ C- C C- A
Now:
B- A+ C- C C- B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
33.9 20.6 5.4 2.7 1.4 0.2 2.7 .457 .857 .369
Wagner has developed into one of the league's premier outside scorers, sporting an unheard of A+ outside scoring rating. His 3 pt percentage hasn't lived up to that rating, but he does score over 20 points per game. While his offensive game has developed nicely, he still is very weak defensively and doesn't bring anything else to the table other than his points. He hasn't been able to lead the Grizzlies to the playoffs, either. I have a feeling his gaudy offensive numbers are going to end up netting this former #6 pick more than he is worth on the open market.
2006 Contract Prediction: 10 mil per season, Memphis Grizzlies
7. Manu Ginobili SG 6'6'' 205 23
Then:
C B B- B C B
Now:
C+ A- A- B+ C B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
13.8 5.2 3.5 1.5 0.1 1.1 .473 .896 .542
A big part of the Kevin Garnett deal, Manu is now a member of the Hawks. Ginobili has shown incredible improvement for a guy the scouts only had pegged with B potential. He still has B potential and has already developed into a great player. A good scorer, fantastic ball handler and talented defender, Manu has it all. His skillset seems that it would translate better into the PG role than SG, so his current spot with the Hawks is interesting. Atlanta has two other talented PGs in Jay Williams and Nate Robinson, so it will be interesting to see how the Hawks manage their roster moving forward.
2006 Contract Prediction: 7 million per, Atlanta Hawks
8. Drew Gooden PF 6'10'' 230 21
Then:
B- C- C- C+ B A
Now:
C+ C- C- B B C
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
5.0 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 .500 .500 .000
Bust. Not much you can say about Gooden. He has actually regressed as a scorer, maintained his rebounding ability, and shown slight improvement as a defender. It still isn't enough to get him on the floor, as he has only played in 3 games for the Blazers this year. He is definitely the highest profile bust from the 2002 class.
2006 Contract Prediction: Vet min contract after free agency
9. Caron Butler SF 6'7'' 220 20
Then:
B- C+ C C+ C+ A
Now:
B B- C+ B C+ C
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
38.1 22.7 6.6 2.4 1.4 0.2 2.1 .504 .627 .449
Caron has had limited improvement from his initial grades, but he has worked himself into an above average player. His further development is likely limited due to his C potential, but you would have to say he has been a successful draft pick. Butler has always put up impressive stats, averaging 18 points per game so far in his career, scoring over 20 ppg in 3 of his 4 seasons in the league. It is up for debate whether Caron's numbers are indicative of his ability as a player or simply a matter of opportunity as he has always been a top scoring option on young teams without a go to scorer. Due to this question, it is hard to project how much money he will get this offseason.
2006 Contract Prediction: 6 mil per year, Chicago Bulls
10. Jared Jeffries SF 6'11'' 240 20
Then:
B- C C C+ C+ A
Now:
B- C C B- C+ A
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
17.6 3.3 3.7 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 .313 .680 .286
The 3rd of the Suns top 10 picks in 2002, Jeffries has been the least successful by far. He could be described as a late bloomer, considering he still has A potential, but you have to be wondering if he will ever cash in on any of that potential? He has seen a slight uptick in his defensive ability, but otherwise is identical to the player he was coming out of school. Jared's claim to fame is his chronic terrible shooting, a 40% shooter for his career is shooting only 31% so far this year.
2006 Contract Prediction: A multiyear deal worth about 2 mil per season from a team hoping he breaks out due to his potential
11. Tayshaun Prince SF 6'9'' 215 22
Then: B- C C+ B- C+ B
Now: B C+ C+ A- C+ B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
33.4 13.1 6.3 2.5 1.1 0.3 1.2 .478 .667 .414
The highest 2002 draftee to have a championship ring, you would have to consider Tayshaun a successful pick for the Kings. Prince has played a major role in all of his seasons on the Kings, helping Sacramento win the 2004 TMBSL Title over the Charlotte Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets. While he hasn't seen overwhelming improvements, he has developed near elite defense and become a solid scorer as well. Prince still has room to grow, but he looks like he has settled into his niche as the 3rd or 4th best player on a championship caliber team.
2006 Contract Prediction: 6.5 million per year with the Kings
12. Luis Scola PF 6'9'' 248 20
Then:
C+ C C- C C A
Now:
C+ C D+ C+ C+ C
2005 Stats:
Has not played in any games.
I wasn't even sure what team Scola was on. That should tell you how much of a bust he has been. In fact, if rookie contracts weren't 4 years, I don't think he would be on a team. He hasn't improved anything and probably wasn't worthy of being drafted 12th overall in the first place by the old Sixers GM.
2006 Contract Prediction: Unsigned, Unrostered... not even the Fighting Kahns want this guy
13. Nikoloz Tskitishvili PF 7'0'' 245 19
Then:
C C+ C C B A
Now:
C+ C+ C C A- B
2005 Stats:
Has not played in any games.
Picked based on his developed rebounding and outstanding potential, Skita hasn't improved much outside of his rebounding. Due to only having one plus skill, he hasn't found his way onto the court for the star studded Knicks. If Nikoloz can improve some other facets of his game, he may find his role on a team in the future. If he doesn't improve anywhere else, I'm not sure his elite rebounding gets him on a team.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum contract, Minnesota Fighting Kahns
14. Kareem Rush SG 6'6'' 215 21
Then:
C+ B C C C A
Now:
C+ A- C+ B- C+ B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
10.0 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 .410 .889 .333
Kareem has improved a lot since being drafted and has made an impact in the league, but now has been limited to a bench role with the Nets where he sees only 10 minutes per game. His first 3 seasons he averaged around 11 points and 7 rebounds per contest. Kareem has probably settled into the role he will hold in the future as a role player off the bench. He is a very capable backup and should get a couple million from someone this offseason to come off the bench.
2006 Contract Prediction: 2 million per year
15. Qyntel Woods SF 6'8'' 220 20
Then:
C+ C+ C C C A
Now:
C+ B- C C+ C- C
2005 Stats:
Has not played.
Bust. Showed promise early but never captured any of the potential he had. Disappointment for sure. Will be lucky to get signed.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum from Minnesota T-Wolves
16. Fred Jones SG 6'2'' 220 22
Then:
B C+ C C C A
Now:
B+ A- C+ B+ C C
Jones has developed into a very nice player by putting his A potential to use. Always stuck behind better players on the talented Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets, Jones is getting his first chance for starters minutes this year and is trying to make the most of his opportunity. He is averaging over 15 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals per game, but is shooting a disappointing 41% thus far. If Jones can step up his play and lead the Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets to a successful year, he has a chance to cash in this offseason. Compared to the players taken around him, Fred Jones definitely has to be considered a steal.
2006 Contract Prediction: 6 million per year from the Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets
17. Juan Dixon SG 6'3'' 195 22
Then:
C B C C+ C B
Now:
C B+ C B- C C
2005 Stats:
Has not played.
Dixon developed a little bit but has never been more than a backup. His future lies as an end of the roster depth guy.
2006 Contract Predicton: Minimum Contract, Minnesota Fighting Kahns
18. Ryan Humphrey PF 6'8'' 235 23
Then:
B- D C- B- C+ B
Now:
B+ D C B+ B- B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
30.4 15.7 9.2 2.9 0.5 3.4 1.7 .458 .585 .000
Humphrey is certainly the biggest steal of the draft. Ryan came into the league and produced right away. One of the league's premier shotblockers, Humphrey is averaging 3.4 per game this year. Humphrey is a two time All Star and averaging close to a double double this season. Best value pick in the draft for sure.
2006 Contract Prediction: 9 million per season, Lakers
19. Chris Wilcox PF 6'10'' 235 20
Then:
C+ D C C+ C A
Now:
B- D C B C+ B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
19.9 3.0 5.1 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.5 .439 .273 .000
Wilcox has developed into a solid bench option for the Rockets and still has some potential to improve. It is unlikely that he will ever develop into anything more than a bench player, but that is still pretty good out of the 19th pick.
2006 Contract Prediction: 2 million per from the Rockets
20. Ronald Murray SG 6'4'' 190 23
Then:
C B B- C C B
Now:
C A- C+ C C C
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
11.2 2.5 2.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.5 .370 1.000 .278
Murray has had some good years for a late 1st round pick, but this year isn't one of them. With his Handling decreased and his potential tapped out, this 3 point specialist shooting 27.8% from 3 might have some trouble finding a job next year. Don't be surprised to see Flip on the bench in Minnesota next year.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum from Minnesota Fighting Kahns
21. Casey Jacobsen SG 6'6'' 215 21
Then:
C B+ C C- D B
Now:
C A- C C- D- C
2005 Stats:
Has not played this season.
Jacobsen got some early playing time for the rebuilding Kings, but without any skills other than his ability to shoot the 3, he hasn't found himself on the court lately. He isn't a bust, but the Kings definitely expected more. At least he has a ring.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum deal from Minnesota Fighting Kahns
22. Curtis Borchardt C 7'0'' 240 21
Then:
C+ D+ C- C+ C+ A
Now:
C+ C- D+ C+ B- B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
18.3 2.3 6.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.0 .286 .286 .000
Borchardt was always right on the cusp of becoming a rotation worthy player, but he never capitalized on opportunity with the Bucks. Now, unless he has a big training camp next year he might find himself without a job.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum deal from Minnesota Fighting Kahns
23. Juan Carlos Navarro PG 6'3'' 170 20
Then:
C C B C C A
Now:
??2005 Stats:
??Navarro is a mystery man. I was not able to locate him on the Free Agent list or any team's roster. I may have just missed him, but it looks like he is no longer part of the TMBSL.
24. Melvin Ely PF 6'9'' 240 23
Then:
C+ D C- B B C
Now:
B- D+ D+ A- A C
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
27.0 9.1 10.2 1.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 .418 .593 .000
Ely was a steal of a pick in the 1st by the Sixers. After a great TC where his potential shot up and his ratings did too, he made an immediate impact. He was shipped to the defensively focused Jazz and hasn't looked back. One of the league's best rebounders, Ely has established his identity in the league and will be a mainstay for years to come.
2006 Contract Prediction: 7 million per year from the Jazz
25. John Salmons SG 6'7'' 210 22
Then:
C C+ C+ C+ C B
Now:
C B B- A- C+ A
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
15.1 2.3 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 .444 .750 .286
Salmons can only be described as a major steal. His ratings has flown through the roof and he still has A potential. Even though he has never gotten playing time and has never averaged more than 6 points per game, this is going to be a very sought after player this offseason.
2006 Contract Prediction: 4 mil per year for a mutilyear deal
26. Nenad Kristic PF 6'11'' 210 17
Then:
C C+ C+ C- C- A
Now:
C C+ C B- C B
2005 Stats;
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
4.0 0.8 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 .667 .000 .500
The Wizards have been waiting and waiting for Kristic to develop. They knew they would have to be patient when they selected the 17 year old big man, but it now appears that he will never develop into anything. Another boom or bust late 1st who ended up busting.
27. Roger Mason, JR SG 6'5'' 200 21
Then:
C C+ C C+ C A
Now:
C+ B C C+ C C
2005 Stats:
Has not played this year.
Mason was very similar to the players picked before and after him in Kristic and Welsch and he has suffered a similar fate. Limited improvement, no more potential, and limited skillset. Right now Mason is nothing but a bench guy and that is likely where his future lies.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum with Houston Rockets
28. Jiri Welsch 6'7'' 205 20
Then:
C+ C+ C+ C C- A
Now:
C+ B- C C C- B
2005 Stats:
MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
5.2 2.8 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.4 .556 1.000 1.000
Welsch never developed like the Eastern Conference Powerhouse Hornets had hoped and he was dealt in a salary dump to the Wizards this offseason. He fits in the Wizards plans well, and he might fit in with the Wolves next season. He has to be considered a bust.
2006 Contract Prediction: Minimum deal with the Minnesota Fighting Kahns
29. Boston Nachbar SF 6'9'' 220 20
Then:
C C+ C C B- A
Now:
C B C C+ B- C
2005 Stats:
Free agent, has not played.
Nachbar is only 2 of the 29 first round picks who is not currently on a team, fitting for the last pick of the round. Although he does not have the worst ratings of any player, he isn't good enough that he has been picked up either. Has to be considered a bust.
2006 Contract Prediction: Unrostered.
2002 First Round Player Rankings:
1. Amare Stoudemire
2. Yao Ming
3. Carmelo Anthony
4. Ryan Humphrey
5. Jay Williams
6. Melvin Ely
7. Manu Ginobili
8. Nene
9. Tayshaun Prince
10. Fred Jones
11. Caron Butler
12. Dajuan Wagner
13. John Salmons
14. Kareem Rush
15. Jared Jeffries
16. Chris Wilcox
17. Juan Dixon
18. Curtis Borchardt
19. Nikoloz Tskitishvili
20. Drew Gooden
21. Ronald Murray
22. Casey Jacobsen
23. Roger Mason, JR
24. Nenad Kristic
25. Bostjan Nachbar
26. Jiri Welsch
27. Qyntel Woods
28. Luis Scola
29. Juan Carlos Navarro
